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Baxter Best Bird Flu.. It's Killer Bro

2009-03-06T06:46:00.000-08:00

Who's Fairing Well, Going Down Toilet

2009-01-04T16:02:00.000-08:00

Trade Deficits/Surpluses Around The World
by Eric deCarbonnel

How will other currencies be affected should the dollar collapse due to its horrible fundamentals? The answer to this question depends on a nation's reliance on the dollar to finance a balance of trade deficit.

Macro factors for 2009

Due to global slowdown, many nations who might otherwise have been running surpluses will instead be running trade deficits this year:

1) Global demand for raw materials will remain depressed until 2010 or later. This means that oil producers and other commodity exporters will be running trade deficits for the foreseeable future.

2) Global demand for luxury, durable, and capital goods will remain depressed until 2010 or later. This means that "new economy" nations like US, UK, and Japan will be running trade deficits this year.

How a Dollar Collapse will drag other currencies down

Among these many nations running trade deficits, there are four groups whose currencies are vulnerable to a US dollar collapse:

1) Nations who are financing trade deficits by selling off dollar reserves. Nations in this category include: India, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and most middle-east oil producers.

2) Nation who are financing trade deficits with large amounts of US foreign aid. Nations in this category include Israel and Egypt.

3) Nation who are offsetting trade deficits with remittances from citizens working abroad. Nations in this category include Mexico and India.

4) Nation who are trade heavily with US while running trade deficits with rest of the world. Nations in this category include Japan and Mexico.

Trade Balance will be key to a currency's survival

What all this means is that the trend in a nation's trade balance in the last three month will most probably determine the fate of its currency. With that in mind, here is a listing of trade balances from nations around the world.

Asia

South Korea
Currency: won—Survivor
Trade Balance: Growing Surplus
Story: South Korea posted current-account surplus for a second straight month in November.

China
Currency: yuan—Survivor
Trade Balance: Growing Surplus
Story: China's trade surplus widened to a record $40 billion, from $35.2 billion in October

India
Currency: rupee—Outlook Negative (Huge dollar reserves)
Trade Balance: Growing Deficit
Story: India's Trade Deficit Grows Worse

Japan
Currency: yen—Outlook Negative (Huge dollar reserves)
Trade Balance: Growing Deficit
Story: Japan trade deficit explodes

Vietnam
Currency: dong—Doomed
Trade Balance: Growing Deficit
Story: Vietnam's Trade Deficit Widens to Record $17 Billion

North America

United States
Currency: dollar—Doomed
Trade Balance: Growing Deficit
Story: Why US trade deficit is worsening

Canada
Currency: dollar—Unclear
Trade Balance: Shrinking Surplus
Story: Canadian Trade Surplus Narrows for a Second Month

Mexico
Currency: peso—Doomed
Trade Balance: Growing Deficit
Story: Mexico monthly trade deficit hits record $2.8B

South America

Chile
Currency: peso—Survivor
Trade Balance: Growing Surplus
Story: Chile November Trade Surplus Grew as Imports Shrank

Brazil
Currency: real—Unclear
Trade Balance: Shrinking Surplus
Story: Brazil’s Currency Falls as Trade Surplus Narrows

Europe (non-Euro)

Switzerland
Currency: Frank—Survivor
Trade Balance: Growing Surplus
Story: Swiss Trade Surplus, Retail Sales Rise; Fears Remain

Norway
Currency: krone—Unclear
Trade Balance: Shrinking Surplus
Story: Norway's global trade surplus slipped 0.3% on the year in October

Britain
Currency: pound—Doomed
Trade Balance: Growing Deficit
Story: UK trade deficit widens in October

Iceland
Currency: krona—Collapsed
Trade Balance: Collapsed
Story: How Iceland Collapsed, Events Turning Violent In Iceland

Ukraine
Currency: hryvnia—Collapsed
Trade Balance: Growing Deficit
Story: Panic as Ukraine's currency plummets, Ukrainian trade gap widens

Russia
Currency: ruble—Unclear (Huge dollar reserves)
Trade Balance: Shrinking Surplus
Story: Russia's trade surplus shrank to $7.1 billion in November

Turkey
Currency: lira—Unclear
Trade Balance: Shrinking Deficit
Story: Turkey's foreign trade deficit down 48.8 percent in November

Europe (Euro)

Euro Zone
Currency: Euro—Unclear
Trade Balance: Shrinking Surplus
Story: Euro area external trade surplus 0.9 bn euro

Germany (refuses to print money like US)
Currency: Euro—Unclear
Trade Balance: Growing Surplus
Story: German trade surplus unexpectedly expands In October

France (wants to print money like US)
Currency: Euro—Unclear
Trade Balance: Growing Deficit
Story: French trade deficit hits new record in October

Ireland
Currency: Euro—Unclear
Trade Balance: Growing Surplus
Story: Imports fell 14% in three months to October 2008; Exports rose 2%

Spain
Currency: Euro—Unclear
Trade Balance: Shrinking Deficit
Story: Spanish current account deficit narrows in october

Italy
Currency: Euro—Unclear
Trade Balance: Growing Deficit
Story: Italy non-EU trade deficit widens y/y in November
Side note: Ability to repay debt in question
Story: Italy's debt levels are greater than value of economy

Greece
Currency: Euro—Unclear
Trade Balance: Shrinking Deficit
Story: Greece's trade deficit dropped 13.9 pct in October
Side note: Ability to repay debt in question
Story: Greek debt spirals after Olympics

Middle East

Israel
Currency: shekel—Doomed
Trade Balance: Growing Deficit
Story: Israeli exports are plummeting

Saudi Arabia
Currency: riyal—Outlook Negative (Huge dollar reserves)
Trade Balance: Growing Deficit
Story: Saudi Arabia's 2009 Budget Deficit

Egypt
Currency: yuan—Doomed
Trade Balance: Growing Deficit
Story: Egypt govt deficit above target in July-Sept

Africa

Zimbabwe
Currency: Dollar—Collapsed
Trade Balance: Collapsed
Story: Zimbabwe: Living with hyperinflation

South Africa
Currency: rand—Doomed
Trade Balance: Growing Deficit
Story: South Africa’s rand falls against euro as trade deficit widens

South Pacific

New Zealand
Currency: dollar—Doomed
Trade Balance: Growing Deficit
Story: New Zealand’s annual current account deficit increased to 8.6 percent of GDP

Australian
Currency: dollar—Doomed
Trade Balance: Growing Deficit
Story: Australian Trade Deficit Grows for 75th Consecutive Month

Brits Worry 2 Hours a Day Over Economy

2009-01-02T19:51:00.000-08:00

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain is becoming a nation of worriers, according to a new survey, with the financial crisis giving people ever more reason to fret about their lives.

The average person now spends 2-1/4 hours of every day worrying -- six and half years of the average life span -- a figure up 30 minutes a day from last year, according to the worry index compiled by reallyworried.com, a support group.

Young adults -- those aged between 16 and 24 -- worry the most, and women worry substantially more than men, according to the survey of 1,400 people nationwide.

The top five concerns in 2008 were: the cost of living, energy prices, personal health, outgoings and income, and personal debt.

Job security, which last year didn't figure in the top 25 worries, shot up to number 7 in the rankings, one notch below recession and a bigger concern than crime.

So much fretting can take a terrible toll on people's health and their sex lives, according to the survey's compilers.

One in five questioned said they drowned their concerns in drink, up 50 percent on last year. One in six said they now shy away from sex because of their constant fretting.

"It is alarming to learn from this research just how many people in Britain are chronic worriers," said Phillip Hodson, a member of the British Association for Counselling and Psychotherapy.

"Worry is the central component of all anxiety disorders and most depression. It is a sign of a double difficulty -- that we cannot get our problems into perspective nor take effective action to solve them."

Reflecting a national characteristic for not unburdening on others, nearly 40 percent of Britons say they keep their worries to themselves, with less than a third discussing them with a partner.

"The research shows that most people in Britain are really worried," said Richard Rubin, the founder of reallyworried.com

"Whether it's about something monumental like facing home repossession, or something relatively simple to sort out such as changing energy suppliers."

Is Yellowstone Volcano Getting Ready?

2008-12-31T09:28:00.000-08:00

http://www.seis.utah.edu/req2webdir/recenteqs/Maps/Yellowstone.html

War College, Civil Unrest -ARMY

2008-12-30T10:16:00.000-08:00

Unrest caused by bad economy may require military action, report says
By Diana Washington Valdez / El Paso Times
Posted: 12/29/2008 12:00:00 AM MST

EL PASO -- A U.S. Army War College report warns an economic crisis in the United States could lead to massive civil unrest and the need to call on the military to restore order.
Retired Army Lt. Col. Nathan Freir wrote the report "Known Unknowns: Unconventional Strategic Shocks in Defense Strategy Development," which the Army think tank in Carlisle, Pa., recently released.

"Widespread civil violence inside the United States would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities ... to defend basic domestic order and human security," the report said, in case of "unforeseen economic collapse," "pervasive public health emergencies," and "catastrophic natural and human disasters," among other possible crises.

The report also suggests the new (Barack Obama) administration could face a "strategic shock" within the first eight months in office.

Fort Bliss spokeswoman Jean Offutt said the Army post is not involved in any recent talks about a potential military response to civil unrest.

The report become a hot Internet item after Phoenix police told the Phoenix Business Journal they're prepared to deal with such an event, and the International Monetary Fund's managing director, Dominique Strauss-Khan, said social unrest could spread to advanced countries if the global economic crisis worsens.

Javier Sambrano, spokesman for the El Paso Police Department, said city police have trained for years so they can address any contingency, but not with the military.

"The

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police (department) trains on an ongoing basis as part of its Mobile Field Force Training," Sambrano said. "As a result, the police will be able to respond to emergency situations, such as looting or a big civil unrest. The police (department) does not train with soldiers."
Earlier this year, Pentagon officials said as many as 20,000 soldiers under the U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM) will be trained within the next three years to work with civilian law enforcement in homeland security.

Joint Task Force-North, a joint command at Biggs Army Airfield, which conducts surveillance and intelligence along the border, comes under NORTHCOM. No one was available at JTF-North to comment on the Army War College's report. NORTHCOM was created after the 9-11 attacks to coordinate homeland security efforts.

Soldiers under the former Joint Task Force-6 (now JTF-North) supported the Border Patrol in El Paso with its drug-interdiction operations.

In case civilian authorities request help or become overwhelmed, El Paso has several National Guard and military reserve units that can be called on. In 1992, National Guard and active Marine and Army units were deployed to help police control riots and looting in Los Angeles.

Charles Boehmer, political science professor at the University of Texas at El Paso, was skeptical about the Army War College report.

"The military was not called out during the Great Depression, and I don't think our economic problems are as bad as they were then," he said. "The military always has contingency plans. It's a think tank's job to come up with scenarios, but that doesn't mean it represents an active interest on the part of the (Pentagon)."

Jim Rogers, Prepare for 2009

2008-12-29T17:54:00.000-08:00

You Can Take Some of It with You

2008-12-26T15:24:00.000-08:00

Architects create American-style suburbs overseas

By DAISY NGUYEN
Associated Press Writer

LOS ANGELES (AP) - Architect Andy Feola keeps running into Southern California colleagues in some of the world's most exotic locations—from the Egyptian desert to China to Azerbaijan.
"We'll scratch our heads and ask 'Why are you here?'" said Feola, president of F+A Architects in Pasadena. "Well, I'm here for the same reasons you're here."

A growing number of architects and urban planners are finding work overseas as the domestic real estate slump persists. An emerging affluent class abroad is drawn to suburbs with U.S. names that mimic the American ideal—down to the master bathroom and tree-lined sidewalk.

A 2006 survey of American Institute of Architects members shows that large architecture firms with more than 100 employees reported billings from international work doubled in four years. Meanwhile, billings in the U.S. this year dropped to the lowest point in the 12 years the survey has been conducted.

While there's no hard data, more American-made windows, roofing systems, furnaces and other specialized materials are being shipped overseas because projects designed by Americans are built to U.S. construction standards, said Jim Haughey, an economist with Reed Construction Data, which tracks the construction industry.

"The English concept of a man's home is his castle is true in most parts of Asia, the Mideast and Eastern Europe," said Jeff Rossely, a Bahrain-based developer of shopping malls, resorts and residential communities in the Middle East. "If you look at how countries are moving up the socio-economic ladder, some of the things they all want is a car, a house, a nice view and air conditioning."

The trend started during the early 1990s U.S. housing downturn and has intensified in recent years. Firms that ventured abroad since that time say doing so has helped them weather economic slowdowns in certain markets.

It has also created opportunities to design on a grander and more creative scale. At times, architects are creating huge master-planned communities encompassing a mix of single-family homes with high rises, parks and shopping centers. Feola's firm is designing a shopping and entertainment complex for New Cairo, a metropolis built from scratch for roughly 200,000 residents in Egypt. The idea is to avoid some of the mistakes of the past and create a mixed-use environment where people rely less on their car to get to shops and services.

American firms are behind an eco-friendly island connected to Shanghai by rail, and a new township in northern Indian loaded with luxury villas, apartments, shops, parks and schools.

Curiously, some of the developments overseas look and sound a lot like California suburbs marketed to affluent customers who have spent time living in the U.S. or attracted to an American suburban lifestyle.

Feola's firm, which does 90 percent of its projects outside the U.S. and is best known for designing a shopping mall in Dubai with an indoor ski slope, was responsible for a development outside of Beijing called Napa Valley that has little resemblance to the winemaking region.

Grassy front lawns and driveways lead to pastel-colored homes that mimic French, Italian or Spanish architectural styles. Customized kitchens, screening rooms and basement wine cellars are very different from Chairman Mao's vision of communal living.

"It's hard to tell you're not in Southern California," Feola said.

Another Beijing suburb is aptly named Orange County, which sold out within days of opening in 2002. Chinese developers hired Newport Beach firm Bassenian Lagoni to make a replica of homes they saw south of Los Angeles. With the eerie resemblance to the American suburb, critics derided the homes as "McMansions."

"It's too bad that we as Americans are turning away from suburban sprawl as Asia adopts it," said Robert Fishman, a professor of architecture and urban planning at the University of Michigan.

Architect Aram Bassenian, whose Mediterranean-style homes have come to define California's ritzy suburbs, contends that architects shouldn't shoulder all the blame. California borrows ideas from elsewhere, and for centuries cities have been designed or influenced by outsiders.

Many advances in green home design that were developed in the U.S. are being introduced overseas, including better insulation or ventilation to rely less on fossil fuels for heating and air conditioning.

To make the homes fit with the local culture, outdoor kitchens are added in Asia for frying food, and trellises are installed to protect Mediterranean homes from intense sunlight.

"We don't create the demand, we respond to people's needs for shelter, for housing," Bassenian said.

Despite criticism, suburban communities are sprouting in Latin America, North Africa, South Asia and Eastern Europe. To promote developments that won't deplete natural resources, land use experts at the Urban Land Institute has been taking foreign groups on "study tours" of U.S. communities and recently opened an education center in the United Arab Emirates.

Developers say they look to American architects because they have a track record of designing successful shopping malls, resorts and other high-end projects.

Bassenian said he doesn't take lightly the task of creating a built-in environment for people millions of miles away.

"It is both a daunting responsibility as well as an incredible privilege to think that what we do here will shape how somebody lives around the world," Bassenian said.

Are You Ready to Rumble?

2008-12-25T17:50:00.000-08:00

U.S. Military Preparing for Domestic Disturbances

Jim Meyers
Global Research
December 24, 2008

A new report from the U.S. Army War College discusses the use of American troops to quell civil unrest brought about by a worsening economic crisis.

The report from the War College’s Strategic Studies Institute warns that the U.S. military must prepare for a “violent, strategic dislocation inside the United States” that could be provoked by “unforeseen economic collapse” or “loss of functioning political and legal order.”

Entitled “Known Unknowns: Unconventional ‘Strategic Shocks’ in Defense Strategy Development,” the report was produced by Nathan Freier, a recently retired Army lieutenant colonel who is a professor at the college — the Army’s main training institute for prospective senior officers.

He writes: “To the extent events like this involve organized violence against local, state, and national authorities and exceed the capacity of the former two to restore public order and protect vulnerable populations, DoD [Department of Defense] would be required to fill the gap.”

Freier continues: “Widespread civil violence inside the United States would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities in extremis to defend basic domestic order … An American government and defense establishment lulled into complacency by a long-secure domestic order would be forced to rapidly divest some or most external security commitments in order to address rapidly expanding human insecurity at home.”

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn warned last week of riots and unrest in global markets if the ongoing financial crisis is not addressed and lower-income households are beset with credit constraints and rising unemployment, the Phoenix Business Journal reported.

Sen. James Inhofe of Oklahoma and Rep. Brad Sherman of California disclosed that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson discussed a worst-case scenario as he pushed the Wall Street bailout in September, and said that scenario might even require a declaration of martial law.

The Army College report states: “DoD might be forced by circumstances to put its broad resources at the disposal of civil authorities to contain and reverse violent threats to domestic tranquility. Under the most extreme circumstances, this might include use of military force against hostile groups inside the United States.

“Further, DoD would be, by necessity, an essential enabling hub for the continuity of political authority in a multi-state or nationwide civil conflict or disturbance.”

He concludes this section of the report by observing: “DoD is already challenged by stabilization abroad. Imagine the challenges associated with doing so on a massive scale at home.”

As Newsmax reported earlier, the Defense Department has made plans to deploy 20,000 troops nationwide by 2011 to help state and local officials respond to emergencies.

The 130-year-old Posse Comitatus Act restricts the military’s role in domestic law enforcement. But a 1994 Defense Department Directive allows military commanders to take emergency actions in domestic situations to save lives, prevent suffering or mitigate great property damage, according to the Business Journal.

And Gen. Tommy Franks, who led the U.S. military operations to liberate Iraq, said in a 2003 interview that if the U.S. is attacked with a weapon of mass destruction, the Constitution will likely be discarded in favor of a military form of government.

Detroit Depression, Average Home Price $18,513, 21 % Unemployment

2008-12-23T15:50:00.000-08:00

Depression Hits Detroit: Average home price $18,513 - Unemployment rate 21%

Tribble Ad Agency
Tuesday, Dec 23, 2008

The Great Depression has reached Detroit. The average price of a home is now $18,513 and unemployment has reached 21%, and it’s expected to get worse. Detroit is facing a crisis of epic proportions that officially puts Detroit statistically (and real term) on par with the great depression. Many readers of Tribble Ad Agency are advertising centric.. and due to the rash of layoffs within all Detroit Advertising firms has put the city on the map for the wrong reasons.

It has become the center of all that is wrong with America… and nothing of what is right.

For example, the crime rate has fallen…. because of lack of targets within the city. Meaning there is nothing left to steal. In fact, even the criminals don’t want to leave jail.

Heard confirmed that some offenders, notably those without homes of their own, were now expressing reluctance to leave jail when their sentences were done.

Home values have plummeted to levels not seen in 1/2 a century… and the 21% unemployment has in some cases been projected to double within 12 months if the auto industry totally collapses.

To make matters even worse, Detroit has superseded New Orleans as the “worst city” in America…. but New Orleans had a Hurricane they could assign blame to… Detroit has no such natural disaster crutch.

“It’s a depression — not a recession,” McDuell said, with the authority of someone who has lived through both. “It will get worse before it gets better.”

It’s a man-made disaster.

Regarding a local food bank in Detroit that has seen record numbers of individuals entering the system:

“Many people are first-timers — they have no idea how to navigate the system, how to qualify for food stamps,” Wells said. “Last year, some were donors — now they’re clients.”

In short, last year they donated money into the system… now they are feeding from it because they themselves are in hard financial times.

Detroit needs a miracle, the chances of it showing a resurgence is slim to none in the current economic outlook.

Peter Schiff on Civil Unrest

2008-12-18T07:51:00.001-08:00

Military on High Alert

2008-12-18T06:27:00.000-08:00

Military to be on high alert for inauguration
About 11,500 troops, including chemical attack experts, will join the security detail as Obama takes the oath of office.
By Julian E. Barnes

December 18, 2008

Reporting from Washington

The U.S. military will be on high alert during Barack Obama's inauguration, increasing air defenses and deploying chemical attack experts and medical units, a general said Wednesday.

Air Force Gen. Victor E. Renuart Jr., who heads the military command that oversees security for North America, said the Defense Department had not been told of specific Inauguration Day threats. Nonetheless, he said, the armed services must be ready.

"It would make news for a terrorist element or rogue element to interrupt that event," Renuart said. "So it is prudent to plan for the possibility of that event and to deter it or to respond to it."

The preparations come amid heightened security concerns during the presidential transition. The Bush administration is planning to provide the president-elect with a series of contingency plans for potential international emergencies, including terrorist strikes and electronic attacks, that could occur after Obama takes the oath of office.

The Secret Service is in charge of security for the inauguration. The agency is coordinating with local police departments, as well as with 4,000 law enforcement officers from 96 jurisdictions. About 11,500 military personnel will take part.

Secret Service officials have established 23 planning teams but have provided few details. Inauguration organizers are considering a loudspeaker system to broadcast evacuation instructions in the event of an attack.

Renuart said the military's preparations were meant to support civilian-led efforts.

After 2001, the U.S. Northern Command, frequently called Northcom, was given broad responsibility for assisting with domestic security. Renuart is also the commander of the North American Aerospace Defense Command, which guards U.S. airspace.

The military response is not unprecedented. Northern Command officials said they provided security for inaugural activities in 2005, as well as for national political conventions and major athletic events such as the Super Bowl.

Some military personnel will be part of the inauguration, playing in bands, marching in parades and conducting honor ceremonies. But Renuart said much of the force would have a security role.

About 4,000 National Guard members will provide support to local law enforcement, boosting security on the National Mall and around Washington, where millions of people are expected. There also will be 7,500 troops under federal control, including emergency medical teams and experts in chemical attacks.

Air defenses around Washington are always tight, but Renuart said the number of patrols would increase.

The contingencies to be conveyed by the White House to the Obama team are separate from the inaugural preparations. They are meant to ensure that the new administration is as prepared as possible on Jan. 20.

The White House briefing, first reported by the New York Times, is part of a larger transition effort by the National Security Council to identify international trouble spots for the new administration.

Gordon Johndroe, a spokesman for the National Security Council, said: "We want to provide them, especially in the first few weeks, the basis for which they can have some information to make their decisions. This is a menu of contingencies and possible options."

Obama is trying to fill key national security jobs, hoping the Senate will confirm many of his appointments on the day of the inauguration or soon after.

Johndroe said the Bush administration would make sure there were career officials ready to act should a crisis develop before Obama's appointees were confirmed.

Internation Bankers, Bush and Dems

2008-12-17T18:48:00.000-08:00

Why are foreign troops doing 2 year rotations in US?

2008-12-17T16:23:00.000-08:00

Greek to Me, Riots Over Corruption

2008-12-15T08:16:00.000-08:00

Riot squads ringed Athens police headquarters Monday as Greek protesters targeted state institutions, while the right-wing government faced new headaches with the re-emergence of a land swap scandal.

Protests marked court appearances for six militants among 86 arrested during weekend violence following the police shooting of a teenager earlier this month.

As the country marked its tenth day of demonstrations, Greek Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis went to Cyprus for a funeral.

More rallies were planned for the night, but for the first time demonstrators admitted a fear of their days-long mobilisation "deflating."

More than 1,000 youths descended on the capital's police base to lead coordinated action disrupting traffic, public buildings and state radio broadcasts across the country.

But the only clashes involving firebombing and tear gas -- the cocktail of choice for Athens radicals -- came outside the prison where two officers await trial over the December 6 killing of 15-year-old Alexis Grigoropoulos.

With one Sunday poll showing majority public support for a "popular uprising" against Karamanlis' administration, protests were also mounted in Thessaloniki, Patras, Ioannina and on the island of Lesbos.

"Solidarity with state hostages," read a banner outside the high court as university and school students sought to step up their presence on the streets in a bid to keep their movement in the news.

Despite discrepancies between state and student figures for schools occupied, ranging from 100 to as many as 400, the country's education system was far from functioning as it should on Monday -- with just a handful of teaching days left before Christmas.

In a sign of enduring anger, banks were also targeted in the central town of Volos overnight -- as a sprawling mound of candles, football scarves, cigarettes and other mementoes rose at an impromptu shrine at the spot where Grigoropoulos fell.

Meanwhile, findings from the first of five parliamentary inquiries into shady deals with an influential Orthodox monastery were released. The probe by Karamanlis' majority glossed over faults in government conduct which went back 10 years to the previous socialist administration.

Results from separate investigations by opposition groupings and subject-specific parliamentary committees were to emerge later Monday.

The influential Vatopedi Monastery in northern Greece is under investigation over a series of property swaps of valuable state land that lost Greek taxpayers millions of euros (dollars).

Two members of Karamanlis' inner political circle have already quit the government over the affair, former merchant shipping minister Georgios Voulgarakis' wife having been implicated in the transaction.

But the head of the Orthodox monastery was seen to have acted in contempt of the parliamentary commission looking into the scandal.

Despite the troubles at home, Karamanlis went ahead with a planned visit to Cyprus for the funeral of former Cypriot president Tassos Papadopoulos, who died of cancer Friday.

The premier has rejected calls to quit, although opposition socialist leader George Papandreou on Sunday demanded fresh elections.

He told a meeting of his PASOK party that Karamanlis' government "ignores the calls of society, is incapable of steadily driving the country towards change and is afraid of the people... Its political time is finished."

Some Mexicans Leaving, Reverse Migration

2008-12-15T06:07:00.000-08:00

DENVER – After going months without a full-time job, Daniel Ramirez has decided it's time to return to family in Mexico.

Vicenta Rodriguez Lopez says she can't afford to live in Colorado any more because her husband was deported.

Roberto Espinoza is going back, too. After 18 years as a mechanic for a General Motors dealership in Denver, his work permit wasn't renewed and he didn't want to remain in the country illegally.

All are leaving Colorado in time for Christmas — joining a traditional holiday migration that will number almost 1 million people, says Mexico's interior ministry. But they have no intention of returning to Colorado, a place that promised prosperity.

Layoffs, dwindling job opportunities, anti-immigrant sentiment and the crackdown on illegal immigrants are forcing hard choices on many Mexican nationals in Colorado. Though not an exodus, some are returning to a nation they haven't seen in years.

"You despair. You think, 'I used to earn $600 a week and now I'm getting half of that a week?'" said Ramirez, 38, who lost his Denver construction job in August. He left last week, driving to San Luis Potosi in central Mexico.

Mexico's consul general in Denver, Eduardo Arnal, said more people like Ramirez are going home for good.

He cites a rise in applications for import tax exemptions by Mexican nationals bringing home their belongings. The consulate hasn't compiled statistics for 2008 but says it receives about three applications a day, compared to one per week in 2007.

"We've seen an increase in this service, which implies that there's a tendency among a larger number of Mexicans who are returning home definitively," Arnal said in an interview in Spanish.

Nationally, 1,809 Mexican immigrants filed for the exemption between January and August, compared to 1,447 the same period last year — a 25 percent increase, according to Mexico's foreign affairs ministry.

That's hardly an indicator of reverse migration, noted Carlos Rico, Mexico's undersecretary for North American affairs. Rico said what is known is that Mexicans are moving to other U.S. states — often places that historically have not seen a large population of Mexicans. They include North Carolina, Georgia, Idaho and Alaska, Rico said.

Whether for economic or anti-immigrant reasons, Rico said, "People are looking for alternatives within the United States."

An estimated 243,253 Mexicans lived in Colorado in 2007, down from 254,844 in 2006, according to the U.S. Census. The state's construction industry, a traditional source of employment for Mexicans, is contracting, and University of Colorado economists expect the state to lose 11,200 construction jobs next year.

Nationally, remittances to Mexico are down, as is Mexican emigration to the U.S.

August remittances totaled $1.9 billion, down 12 percent from August 2007, Mexico's Central Bank says. It's the first drop since the bank began tracking remittances in 1996.

Mexico's National Statistics and Geography Institute estimates that 814,000 Mexicans emigrated to the U.S. in 2006, compared to 1.2 million in 2007.

Arnal noted that Mexico's economy is growing, albeit modestly. Mexico's Treasury Department reported a 1.7 percent growth rate for the third quarter and forecasts 2 percent growth for the year.

But hard times, not tepid growth back home, are prompting some Colorado Mexicans to leave.

Espinoza said the recession's onset took him by surprise. He'll be seeing his country for the first time in nearly two decades.

"I miss my country," said Espinoza, 34, who is returning to Guadalajara, Jalisco.

Vicenta Rodriguez Lopez lives in Severance, about 60 miles north of Denver. She's leaving for the Mexican state of Sinaloa after 15 years because her husband, who worked at a ranch dairy, was deported for being here illegally.

"He told me to pack up everything," Rodriguez, 40, said in Spanish. "We're not young anymore."

Her 21-year-old son, also in the country illegally, plans on staying.

Jesus Luna, 30, is returning to Puebla with his wife and two children after nearly four years in Colorado Springs. His reasons aren't entirely economic. His parents are ailing. Packing things he said have been so easily accumulated here — bikes, toys, a washer and other appliances — he will be driving nearly 40 hours to arrive in time for Christmas parties.

"You know how it is — eating and more eating," he said, smiling.

Still others return on their own terms, having accrued the wealth to let them live their dreams in Mexico.

"I can't complain. I have a job and I am able to come back if I want," said Gustavo Camacho, 43, who works for a firm digging trenches for electrical cables in Denver.

Camacho, who is from Jalisco, has been here twice, from 1999-2003 and again since 2005. The first time, he saved enough money for a house in Jalisco. This time, he has enough to start a business — either a car repair shop or selling food on the street.

He wants his six children to grow up in Mexico, where he thinks family values are stronger.

"I'll miss it," Camacho said about his time in Colorado. "But you always miss something, whether you're here or in Mexico.

"I might even miss the weather."

Free Electricity?

2008-12-14T16:03:00.000-08:00

Civil Unrest in Greece

2008-12-13T07:43:00.000-08:00

Survival Ideas-Food

2008-12-12T08:27:00.000-08:00

Ebola Virus in Pigs

2008-12-11T18:23:00.000-08:00

Manila reports Ebola virus in pigs
By Roel Landingin in Manila

Published: December 11 2008 20:24 | Last updated: December 11 2008 20:24

Philippine officials tucked into servings of lechon, the popular dish of roasted whole pig, in front of television cameras on Thursday to reassure the public of the safety of the national staple meat after the discovery among hogs near Manila of a strain of the Ebola virus.

Arthur Yap, agriculture secretary, and Francisco Duque, health secretary, said the Ebola Reston virus, which had never been found in pigs before, presented a low health risk for humans and was different from the deadly African variety.

The World Health Organisation was reported to be looking into whether there was any chance humans could have become infected.

The outbreak could deal a blow to Philippine plans to build a pork export industry. The government halted an inaugural shipment of frozen pork to Singapore and quarantined three swine farms.

Pork vendors in public markets in Manila sought to assure buyers that their products had passed government inspection and met safety standards.

“December is the month when we sell the most pork at relatively higher price,” said Evelyn Reyes, who operates a small pork stall in Quezon City. “I really hope the government does a good work of calming people’s fears about the Ebola virus.”

Pork accounts for more than half of the average 61g of meat consumed daily by each Filipino.

The virus was first discovered in 1989 in macaque monkeys imported from the Philippines by a laboratory in Reston, Virginia. Scientists are trying to determine how the virus spread to pigs.

Own Your Own Tropical Island

2008-12-11T08:12:00.000-08:00

Your own private island: there’s nothing quite as romantic,
private or exotic.

Tropical Islands For Sale--From $217,000

International Living Postcards--your daily escape
http://www.internationalliving.com

Tuesday, Dec. 9, 2008
Private Islands, Brazil

Dear International Living Reader,

Have you ever pictured yourself lounging on a tropical island, totally secluded, with only the sounds of nature to disturb the silence? Watching faraway ships passing by as the sun sets over the water? Living totally “off the grid” when you choose to get away from the stress of the world? If so, I’ve found a few places in Brazil where you can make that dream come true.

The first is Ilha Aletrop (Ihla means “island” in Portuguese). It’s a large 148-acre island located in the state of Pernambuco on Brazil’s north coast. You can build on 15 acres, while the rest must be preserved in its natural state.

Europe- Civil Unrest Grows

2008-12-11T06:38:00.000-08:00

Demonstrations against the killing were seen in cities across the continent with left-wing radicals and other sympathisers taking to the streets.

In Spain, 11 protesters were arrested and several police officers injured when clashes took place in Madrid and Barcelona.

In Copenhagen, 32 people were arrested when their protest in support of the Greek protests turned violent.

In neighbouring Turkey, about a dozen left-wing protesters daubed red paint over the front of the Greek consulate in Istanbul.

Around 150 people belonging to a Danish underground movement took to the streets, throwing bottles and paint bombs at buildings, police cars and officers. In Moscow and Rome, protesters threw petrol bombs at Greece's embassies.

Journalists came under attack for the first time in the riots, with a Russian news crew assaulted by a mob of about 50 youths, some of them reportedly drunk.

A correspondent and a cameraman for Russian television channel NTV were injured in the confrontation, which happened while they filmed clashes in Exarchia, a crucible of student radicalism.

In Athens, around 40 youths threw stones at riot police near university buildings in the volatile Exarchia district where 15-year-old Alexis Grigoropoulos was shot dead on Saturday.

They were met with volleys of tear gas and three arrests were made, police said. Overnight, students hurling petrol bombs and stones again battled riot police in Athens, in a continuation of the worst riots to have hit Greece in more than 30 years.

There were similar clashes in the northern city of Thessaloniki, where more than 80 shops and 14 banks were damaged, with students continuing to occupy university campuses.

Despite the turmoil that has rocked Greece since Grigoropoulos was killed, embattled Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis said he would fly to Brussels to attend a European Union summit. His conservative government has a parliamentary majority of just one seat.

Corruption scandals and attempts at economic reform have made Mr Karamanlis' administration deeply unpopular, but he has so far resisted calls to resign and call early elections.

Epaminondas Korkoneas, 37, the police officer accused of shooting the teenager, has been charged with voluntary homicide and "illegal use" of his service weapon. He was ordered to remain in custody by an Athens magistrate.

His partner, Vassilios Saraliotis, 31, was charged with being an accomplice and will also remain in custody. The pair have been held since Sunday.

Under questioning by a magistrate, Mr Korkoneas said he had acted out of self defence when a group of youths began throwing firebombs and other objects while threatening to kill him and his partner.

His lawyer said the bullet which killed Grigoropoulos showed signs of having bounced off a hard surface, indicating that the boy was killed as a result of an accidental ricochet.

Greece has a history of clashes between the police and left-wing, anarchist groups.

A student uprising in 1973 helped bring an end to the country's military dictatorship a year later.

But the scale of this week's violence has left the country in deep shock as Greeks count the cost of the destruction.

The Athens Chamber of Commerce said 435 businesses had been hit during the violence, with 37 completely gutted, estimating the damage at GBP 44 million (50 million euros).

Under the headline "Greece in self-destruct mode" the conservative daily newspaper Kathimerini said in an editorial: "This is a country with a state that is in a shambles, a police force in disarray, mediocre universities that serve as hotbeds of rage instead of knowledge and a shattered health care system. It is also on the brink of financial ruin."

PC Notice

2008-12-10T12:21:00.000-08:00

China Uses Mental Hospitals for Whistleblowers

2008-12-09T07:18:00.000-08:00

By Andrew Jacobs

Monday, December 8, 2008
BEIJING: Local officials in Shandong Province have apparently found a cost-effective way to deal with gadflies, whistleblowers and all manner of muckraking citizens who dare to challenge the authorities: dispatch them to the local psychiatric hospital.

According to an investigative report published Monday by a state-owned newspaper, public security officials in Xintai city have been institutionalizing residents who persist in their personal campaigns to expose corruption or to protest the unfair seizure of their property. Some people said they were committed up to two years, and several of those interviewed said they had been forced to consume psychiatric medication.

The article, in The Beijing News, said most inmates had been released after they agreed to give up their causes.

Sun Fawu, 57, a farmer seeking compensation for land spoiled by a coal mining operation, said he was seized by the local authorities on his way to petition the central government in Beijing and brought to the Xintai Mental Health Center in October.

During a 20-day stay, he said he was tied to a bed, forced to take pills and given injections that made him numb and woozy. When he told the doctor he was a petitioner, not mentally ill, the doctor reportedly said, "I don't care if you're sick or not. As long as you are sent by the township government, I'll treat you as a mental patient."

In an interview with the paper, the hospital's director, Wu Yuzhu, acknowledged that some of the 18 patients brought there by the police in recent years were not deranged, but he had no choice but to take them in. "The hospital also had its misgivings," he said.

Although China is not known for the kind of systematic abuse of psychiatry that occurred in the Soviet Union, human rights advocates say forced institutionalizations are not uncommon in smaller cities. Robin Munro, the research director of China Labour Bulletin, a rights organization in Hong Kong, said such "an kang" wards - Chinese for peace and health - are a convenient and effective means of dealing with pesky dissidents.

In recent years practitioners of Falun Gong, the banned spiritual movement, have complained of coerced hospitalizations and one of China's best-known dissidents, Wang Wanxing, spent 13 years in a police-run psychiatric facility under conditions he later described as abusive.

In one recent, well-publicized case, Wang Jingmei , the mother of a man convicted of killing six policemen in Shanghai, was held incommunicado at a mental hospital for five months and only released last Sunday, the day before her son was executed.

The Beijing News story about the hospitalizations in Xintai was notable for the traction it gained in China's constrained state-run media. Such Communist Party stalwarts as People's Daily and the Xinhua news agency republished the story, and it was picked up by scores of Web sites. At the country's most popular portal, Sina.com, it ranked the fifth most-viewed news headline and readers posted more than 20,000 comments by evening. The indignation expressed was universal, with many clamoring for the dismissal of those involved. "They're no different than animals," read one post. "No, they're worse."

Reached by phone on Monday, a hospital employee said Wu, the hospital director who voiced his misgivings to The Beijing News, was unavailable. The employee, Hu Peng, said local government officials had taken him away for "a meeting" earlier in the day and had also looked through patient records.

Although Hu said the hospital was not authorized to diagnose patients, he nonetheless defended the hospitalizations, saying that all the patients delivered by the Public Security Bureau were certifiably ill. "We definitely would not accept those without mental problems," he said.

Market Disintigration

2008-12-06T16:09:00.000-08:00

by Eric deCarbonnel

Jim Willie CB reports that US in early stages of disintegration:

(emphasis mine)

Zombie Banks & Gold Trigger
By: Jim Willie CB

-- Posted Thursday, 4 December 2008

The USGovt and financial system is growing deep commitments to support dead entities. Their business models have failed. They are bankrupt. Although with faulty business model, often laced with fraud, they have been fully adopted by the USGovt and US Federal Reserve. They are considered too big to fail. Or one should say, they are too connected to the power structure, or they are too intertwined with explosive financial devices, or one from their own tribe is running the Dept of Treasury. Capitalism embraces the Darwinian principles bound by survival of the fittest. The United States bears absolutely no resemblance to such principles anymore, at least at the upper corporate echelons. The system is giving colossal support to zombie banks and soon zombie corporations. The Wall Street banks continue to receive money without any restrictions whatsoever, even grants after meetings held before dawn, but Detroit carmakers must produce a plan for reform. Under what conditions did Citigroup receive untold billion$? Did they make concessions, or just pull a string? Hidden motives abound, even for the Citigroup last minute bailout.

The climax of this charade in ass-backward policy will be the nationalization of the mortgage system. It is a fully neglected problem, soon to need powerful aid in the nation’s largest program in its history. Its prelude was the adoption of the Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac couple, despite its well-known fraud, perhaps directly due to the desire to cover its fraud. Foreigners like China demanded the USGovt backstop of the fat failed duo, which gave the fraud kings political cover. The many foreign funds would have continued to dump the F&F label bonds en masse without the official takeover. Instead, they have shifted from USAgency Mortgage Bonds to USTreasury Bonds.

The US financial structure deeply invests in failure, and is fully committed to the ruling elite, to the exclusion of the mainstream public. Ever since Clinton appointed Robert Rubin of Goldman Sachs to the post of Secy Treasury in 1992, the USEconomy and US financial structure has suffered mortally wounds. That decade of prosperity was stolen from Fort Knox, a major piece to the Strong Dollar Policy having been the gold carry trade enacted by Rubin. These insiders borrowed gold at a lease rate pushed down by Rubin, and bought USTreasury Bonds. Since borrowing costs were the biggest component to business profitability, economic growth ensued. Time revealed the gaping wounds, however. Their actions over eight years resulted in a stock boom and bust, a clear and loud signal at the end of their reign, of a failure soon evident in a wrecked national financial foundation.

In the last year, clearly the new business model is governed by reaction to failure that the Strong Dollar Policy produced. The manufacturing base left town for Asia, starting in 2001. Again, thanks to Clinton for pushing the Chinese Most Favored Nation status. In the first few years since its passage, $23 billion in US corporate investment was put in place inside China. At its peak, Wal-Mart owned 160 manufacturing plants, in direct opposition to founder Sam Walton’s ‘Made in America’ slogan. The corporate titans sidestepped higher US labor costs and strict US labor unions by leaving the country in a grand movement. The moron US economists hailed the move as a ‘Low Cost Solution’ in typical wrong-footed fashion. They somehow overlooked that much less employment in the United States would have consequences rooted in debt growth and foreign debt dependence. By year 2006, fully 60% of Chinese trade surplus was derived from US corporate subsidiaries located in China, exporting products to the West. Here we are, stuck in the present, as the great US consumer economy has virtually collapsed. The stewards of the US money wellspring have decided to backstop or acquire numerous failures. The preservation of jobs and the system itself is their stated motive. Instead, they have guaranteed the failure and collapse of the system, all in time. Viable enterprise is being denied capital, which has been re-directed to failed enterprise. This fact has escaped the US economists, clearly the worst in the world.

GREAT JOKE, SAD TO BE SO TRUE
Lawrence Livermore Laboratories has discovered the heaviest element yet known to science. The new element, Governmentium (symbol=Gv), has one neutron, 25 assistant neutrons, 88 deputy neutrons, and 198 assistant deputy neutrons, giving it an atomic mass of 312. These 312 particles are held together by forces called morons, which are surrounded by vast quantities of lepton-like particles called peons. Since Governmentium has no electrons, it is inert. However, it can be detected, because it impedes every reaction with which it comes into contact. A tiny amount of Governmentium can cause a reaction that would normally take less than a second, to take from 4 days to 4 years to complete. Governmentium has a normal half-life of 2 to 6 years. It does not decay, but instead undergoes a reorganization in which a portion of the assistant neutrons and deputy neutrons exchange places. In fact, Governmentium's mass will actually increase over time, since each reorganization will cause more morons to become neutrons, forming isodopes. This characteristic of moron promotion leads some scientists to believe that Governmentium is formed whenever morons reach a critical concentration. This hypothetical quantity is referred to as critical morass. When catalyzed with money, Governmentium becomes Administratium (symbol=Ad), an element that radiates just as much energy as Governmentium, since it has half as many peons but twice as many morons.

The above is not my original creation, the rest is my addendum. If the above does not make you laugh as much as cry inside, you aint human. The missing portion of the substance known as corruptium, which leads to radiated energy into channels almost entirely into the power source, once damaged heavily by exposure to light, but now covered by czar tissue.

GUARD FROM CURRENCY COMPETITION
The USEconomy is in the early stages of disintegration, not yet recognized as such. The USFed is not helping the system, but rather draining the system, in order to fund Wall Street bailouts, to redeem its fraud, and to ward off foreigners in a global dollar swap policy. The competitive currency devaluations are in full swing. The competing currency war is best seen from the standpoint of official interest rate by nations. Yesterday, desperate rate cuts were ordered atop previous desperate rate cuts done on November 6. The Euro Central Bank cut this time by 75 basis points to 2.5% (last time by 50 bpts). The Bank of England cut this time by 100 basis points to 2.0% (last time by 150 bpts). Even the central bank of Sweden cut by 175 basis points. The rate cuts one month ago were a parade, a cavalcade of discredited bankers, who have increasingly lost confidence of the public. The confusion on monetary policy is aided by observation of the money supply figures, which are growing rapidly. The irony in my mind is that the monumental money supply growth has not entered the mainstream economy, but does not result in economic response, zero traction. The reason is that the USFed has directed funds only to New York banks, thus feeding a black hole. The central bankers are not asleep at the wheel as much as operating a machine with a built-in breakdown mechanism after a few decades. Their time is up. The Gosbank board is worth another view.

NEW LIGHT ON MOTIVE TO EXTORT & DIVERT
Mr Mortgage is astute in analyzing banks and balance sheets. He explains a prima facie motive for the Czar Paulson confiscation of $125 billion, in the scrapping of the TARProgram first tranche. See the article entitled “America’s Mark-to-Model Banking System (revisited)” (CLICK HERE). He points out that everybody is focused on Level-3 assets, which are the obscure asset backed bonds veiled in price model chicanery, loaded with leverage, but worthless beyond argument. The subprime loans are laced within this level of asset, given cover by false AAA-ratings and obscured by bond packaging, often structured with leverage. What has not received with much publicity is that the Level-2 assets might result in similar volume losses to banks, but not yet realized. They are loaded down by Alt-A loan portfolios. To be assigned an Alt-A loan, a borrower must have inconsistent records of income, typical of the self-employed, or have a blotch in the credit history, like with a judgment against, or have incomplete records required by bankers from their many unique situations. The Level-2 assets are soon to explode onto the scene, with losses that in all likelihood will eclipse the subprimes losses. Could it be that Czar Paulson might have changed course on TARP fund usage when he realized that the US banking system is due for the next painful round of crippling losses? He might know the US banks are zombies, surely not revived by a cover by a tarp.

Details are in the article, with analysis to be included in the December Hat Trick Letter report due out in mid-December. Let it be clear that the Level-2 assets held by banks are much larger in magnitude than the subprime loan portfolios, like 8x to 10x larger. Wachovia is in possession of $160 billion in Level-2 assets on their books, most likely dominated by Pay Option adjustable rate mortgages. A mere 7.5% writedown in Level-2 assets on bank balance sheets would equal the total writedowns by banks worldwide to date!!! Some argue without basis that the Alt-A mortgages have a significantly lower default rate. NOT TRUE! As of October 2008, serious delinquencies for Alt-A pools that include Option ARMs averaged 20.3% for the 2006 vintage loans and 17.5% for the 2007 vintage, up from 16.9% and 12.2% six months ago, all according to Moodys. These delinquency rates are equivalent to subprimes, and indicate equally high defaults. Thus the volume of bank losses should be expected to be much bigger.

Paulson must be aware of these facts and figures. Instead of throwing Congressional funds into a black hole, he enabled a selected diversion of funds to the member banks of the Federal Reserve Bank system, an elite group of less than a dozen banks. For instance, Wells Fargo is a major mortgage provider, yet was not doled out any confiscated funds. In doing so, he enabled executive bonuses to be given whose size is on par with those of last year, despite performance by executives that resulted in the death of the Wall Street business. My forecast is for three waves to hit US banks, of equal or INCREASING magnitude, from three delineated risk levels. First was subprime, done. Next is Alt-A, in progress. The last wave will be from conventional primes, sprinkled with car loans and credit card losses.

The last wave of significant bank losses will also include the commercial mortgages, whose bond spreads reacted very badly to the Paulson confiscation and diversion for elite benefit. The total volume of commercial mortgages is not very large by comparison. However, the blight will be unmistakable, as office buildings might go empty, and projects left incomplete. Notice the CMBX index rose over 300 basis points since late October alone. The commercial mortgage backed bond index tells the tale of betrayal well. The news media does not. The justification offered by Czar Paulson was that purchase of bank stocks offered a 12x leverage to the big banks, enough to facilitate loans. Except that privately, the banks were ordered not to lend to the public, but rather to save funds for bank acquisitions like National City. Only in America can a group be responsible for wreckage of the banking system, get away with rampant fraud with export, yet its executive icon be put in charge of the rescues, relief efforts, and dispensation of money. The system is broken. Those in charge of the solution are actually making the situation worse.

STRANGE SIGNALS
Numerous onerous signals can be detected. One must ignore the public statements of improvement. In past articles, the point has been made that the US Federal Reserve has engaged in truly massive Cash Management Bill sales, to the tune of several hundred billion$, with $145 billion more between October 2 and 15 alone. THESE ACTIONS DRAIN THE MAINSTREAM PRIVATE SECTOR OF BANK FUNDS, which is precisely the opposite of what Chairman Bernanke claims. He is not flooding the system with liquidity, but rather draining the system in order to subsidize the insolvent Wall Street banks and broken major financial firms. Rob Kirby in private conversations calls it suffocating a man in his living room by placing a bag over his head, when the room is being injected by huge oxygen tanks. Mine is to describe it as filling a vast swimming pool, by diverting water from the neighborhood homes and businesses, then declaring the pool for aristocratic usage only, except for certain peon individuals who are permitted to swim in the shallow section wearing a giant hefty bag for a swim suit. In neither example, is the person gaining benefit.

The USTreasury Bond credit default swap used to trade at a cost of only 1 or 2 basis points. That means the cost was 0.01% or 0.02%, translated to be $1000 or $2000 per $10 million of USTBonds. Nowadays, the CDSwap cost has risen to almost 50 basis points, far higher than government debt for Germany, England, and France. Investors are taking out protection for the unthinkable, a USTreasury default. The risk premiums for such protection have nearly doubled from levels seen two months ago after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Contrast the USTBond insurance cost with some of the member states. CDS data on some states: Michigan at 192 basis points, California at 165 bpts, Nevada at 164 bpts, New Jersey at 150 bpts, Ohio at 104 bpts. Foreign nation Slovakia has sovereign bond insurance cost at 150 bpts, by comparison.

Many dismiss the threat of a USTreasury default, but they do so in blind faith. They ignore confirmation signals, such as the in the 30-year USTreasury swap spread. It has been negative for a few weeks. Some call this development inconceivable, illogical, impossible. Yet it is the reality. The swap contract exchanges a floating rate for a fixed rate, and pays a price to do so. Imagine paying a small fixed amount to render an adjustable ARM mortgage loan with a fixed rate, a similar concept. Some experienced analysts have interpreted this as meaning that investors are somehow reckoning that they are more likely to be redeemed on their USTBond investments by a private counter-party than by the government itself! One can call this event the ‘proverbial canary in the coalmine’ as a threat to the current system. Last week, arguments were put forth that the central bank franchise concept is in danger of demise. Evidence in the signals supports the view. Currency wars are heating up, even as investors are anxious about fiat currencies in general, and their offered debt securities. The Iceland situation rocked the system, to be sure.

Former Harvard University endowment fund investment manager, now PIMCO co-executive, Mohammed El-Erian frequently offers an opinion. He believes US bank officials are making big errors by attacking problems one item at a time, as opposed to treating the problems in an aggregate fashion, from a systemic approach. He makes a key point: A flight to liquidity is occurring, not a flight to quality or a flight to safety, as a global phenomenon takes place toward vast liquidations. He is a system wonk, never forget. He also claims the bank system is again functioning because of the TARP equity purchases at a premium, and placement of funds directly into capital structure. He must not have noticed that over 85% of the TARP funds in the initial tranche went to executive bonuses to select Fed Reserve banks.

The laws of Supply & Demand have not gone away. Yet we have grand disparities to pressure price structures. A) The supply of USTreasury Bonds is huge, yet yields are low and price is high. That is ass backwards. B) The creation of truly vast sums of USDollars is huge, needed to pay for the bond swaps, bailouts, stimulus packages, and nationalizations. Yet the USDollar index rises, due to liquidations and payouts. That is ass backwards. C) The demand for physical gold and silver is huge, motivated by crisis, yet their prices are determined by corrupt paper pricing systems. That is ass backwards. Soon, all three stresses on price structures will be addressed. A strange day occurred on Monday. Gold was down hard, the euro currency was down a little, but the pound sterling was down 500 bpts. Some attributed it to lousy economic news in England. Not completely so! Another factor might be at work. A clearer perception of a struggling UK Economy would not take down the gold price. My sources tell of possible shipments of gold from England to the US-based COMEX, in order to satisfy gold demands for delivery. It is hard to verify. Time will tell.

REACTION TO DISINTEGRATION
If you do not believe the claim of economic disintegration, you have not been paying attention to the many USEconomic signals. The housing prices continue down in an accelerated speed. The Case Shiller September decline for 20 cities was 17.4%, still rising monthly. The home foreclosures continue to grow at a monstrous pace, with no letup. The various regional Fed reports such as the Empire State, the Philly Fed, the Richmond Fed, along with the ISM manufacturing and ISM service indexes are not indicating recession. They are indicating collapse, falling far lower than even keeled 50 levels. My preference is to label it as DISINTEGRATION. When the credit lines are interrupted, when the USFed is acting as the main bank to fund non-lending hamstrung banks, those credit lines are not just broken, but favored toward the insiders, the system is dysfunctional. When short-term credit is hampered, distribution channels are interrupted for necessities that keep an economy running. Letters of credit for shippers are routinely refused when US banks are involved. Consumers finally have fallen down, the indefatigable US consumer, the engine of the world economy. Give me a break! They never were the engine of global growth. They were the lopsided lamb which spent household equity, burning the furniture figuratively, to fund Asian industrial expansion, not to mention the Asian foreign reserve funds. A bonfire to burn home equity is far from an engine, the only thing in common being combustion.

The Asian sovereign wealth funds grew in lockstep with the insanity of manifested US consumer mentality. In the same manner, the Persian Gulf sovereign wealth funds (and private sheik accounts) grew from oil revenues. Never have consumer sentiment measures been so low. To heck with claims of economic depression risk. The palpable risk is for disintegration. The USFed, with its drainage of private sector bank capital to fund Wall Street bond swaps, almost guarantees the slide into disintegration. AS THE SYSTEM DEGRADES FURTHER IN ITS STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY, A PANICKY RESPONSE IS ALMOST ASSURED TO PRODUCE INFLATION FAST. Gold & silver will respond.

RELUCTANT NATIONALIZATION OF MORTGAGES
The national situation will continue to degrade. With New York bankers hogging the trough, the rest of the herd with lesser pedigree is starving. Only after objections to the TARP confiscation and theft has the USFed installed new programs to address Asset Backed Commercial Paper and other pools such as for car loans and credit cards. They must realize that they are strangling the entire USEconomy. In time a panic climate will set in. A turning point is coming for reflation. Slowly, the banking officials and legislators will realize that the ultimate source of the problem for the USEconomy is falling home prices, foreclosures, and the straightjacket that homeowners find themselves with negative home equity. To date they only talk about deeply impaired mortgage bonds, with short-sightedness. Just Thursday, the hapless Secy of Inflation Bernanke admitted that 15% to 20% of US homeowners are underwater on home loans, living with negative home equity. THIS IS THE ULTIMATE PROBLEM BEHIND THE INSOLVENT BANKS.

Bankers will not lend when borrowers are insolvent. Bankers will not lend when their own balance sheets decline each quarter due to falling home prices, the effect being to push their mortgage bonds down further in value. The great majority of homeowners facing foreclosure who accept federal help in mortgage repayment plans actually pass through a revolving door. They face foreclosure only a few months later. WHY? Because the late payments are put onto the loan balance, the fees are sometimes waved, the interest rate is reduced in many cases, BUT THE LOAN BALANCE REMAINS ABOVE THE HOME VALUE. The unsuccessful USGovt HOPE NOW program calls for VOLUNTARY banker reduction in the loan balance. To date, the great majority of troubled home loans are NOT reduced. Thus the revolving door. A big jump has been seen in recent home loan refinances, with lower mortgage rate. This is good news, but fails to address the ultimate problem of insolvent households. The priority must be the achievement of bank solvency and actual home loan balance reductions with federal reimbursement.

THE NEXT MAJOR STEP IS MONTHS AWAY, BUT IT WILL FEATURE NATIONALIZATION OF MORTGAGES, REDUCTION IN LOAN BALANCES, WHOSE COSTS ARE COVERED BY THE US CONGRESS. More pain is needed to reach a consensus on such a huge new program. The nationalization of mortgages will ultimately cost at least $2 trillion.

After blowing $8.5 trillion so far in US Federal Reserve programs, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp programs, Treasury Dept programs, and Federal Housing Administration programs, none of which address the ultimate problem of insolvent homeowners, the stage is set for a radical solution, the final solution to the problem. See the SFGate table of details on this colossal sum of money, which to date roughly doubles the entire USGovt federal debt up to 2008 (CLICK HERE). With nationalization and meaningful loan balance reductions to a few million mortgage loans, a bid can only then be finally placed under home prices. Mortgage bond losses will be stemmed. Bank ruin will be halted. Of course, the solution is radical. But so is the problem. The people lack a solid representation in the USCongress anymore.

THE MORTGAGE NATIONALIZATION WILL FINALLY PERMIT REFLATION, SURE TO RESULT IN HYPER-INFLATION. THE GOLD PRICE WILL REACT IN A CLEAR AND UNMISTABLE MANNER. Now that most foreign central banks have moved to extremely accommodative official interest rates, the USDollar is less at risk from relative monetary competition. They are by now fully aware of the risk to their own banking systems and economies. The global move to reflation, if not hyper-inflation, is soon to be triggered. The maneuver in October to install a globally available USDollar Swap Facility was a deft insurance policy planted by the USFed to assure that foreign banking systems are laced with USTBonds. They can less easily abandon the USDollar as the global reserve currency. The entire, at least Western, world will be joining in the process.

GOLD IN EURO TERMS
The last several months have put too much focus on the US perspective. The gold price has consolidated in euro terms. The real fireworks for gold lie ahead. The COMEX gold & silver markets are certain to endure major assaults. Their phony low price invites heavy demand, if not destruction much like an outstretched rubber band. The swallow of the bitter hyper-inflation pill will assure the rise in gold price. The engines are revving still at 10 thousand RPMs, as gold watchers await the price inflation skidmarks on the economic tires. They are coming. Patience has been sorely tested. With the shift of power away from the US and toward Europe in the Western world, the price of gold should be viewed more often in euro terms. It has not fallen badly, but instead has consolidated. The bullish divergence is clear. A U-shaped reversal pattern requires a move above 650 euros to ignite a rally. Before long, gold will run up in all currencies.

My reaction: Great article. I will be putting together my own detailed explanation of the dollar's collapse over the weekend.

A dollar collapse is 100% guaranteed. I am very worried about the social unrest that will be unleashed when this happens, especially considering booming arms sale. My next project is to quickly start looking for "vacation locations" outside the US which would make good safe havens, should the situation deteriorate drastically.

In any case, buy gold and silver to preserve your savings.

Harvest Time- Middle Class American Property

2008-12-05T15:49:00.000-08:00

Chinese bargain hunters are preparing to descend on American cities such as Los Angeles and San Francisco, where homeowners have suffered some of the steepest price falls in the US.

SouFun, the biggest real estate website in China, is organising a trip next month to look at properties in California and possibly Nevada. Liu Jian, the company’s chief operating officer, said about 300 people had expressed interest in the idea in the three days since it was advertised, though the company would take only a small group on the first trip.

The trip would focus on California, particularly San Francisco and Los Angeles, where big Chinese populations might make his clients more comfortable, but might also include Nevada.

Restrictions on taking money out of China would be an obstacle, he added, but some potential investors had an overseas connection such as a foreign passport that would make it easier.

Property professionals say there is considerable interest among wealthy Chinese, who often hold a high proportion of assets in property, in investing abroad.

“The US market absolutely terrifies me,” said one Shanghai-based real estate executive. “However, there are plenty of people here who think this a great time for bottom-fishing.”

There is opposition in China to SouFun’s plan. “Unless these people need a house in the US to live in, this is senseless,” said Yi Xianrong, a real estate expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. “A few years ago there was a lot of talk about investing in German real estate but most of the people who did so lost a lot of money.”

SouFun, owned by Australia’s Telstra, provides information on property markets in more than 100 cities and has more than 40m registered users.

Spy on your neighbors, for fun?

2008-12-04T14:33:00.000-08:00

Get Your House Together

2008-12-01T17:27:00.000-08:00

20,000 Troops, Restrictions on Leaving Country

2008-12-01T09:01:00.000-08:00

Iceland , Terrioist Nation?

2008-11-28T18:50:00.000-08:00

The Argosy reports about Iceland's frozen economy:

(emphasis mine)

Iceland's frozen economy
How Iceland entered an economic freefall, and why Britain labeled it a terrorist nation
By Tom Llewellin

“Iceland is bankrupt,” proclaimed Arsaell Valfells, a University of Iceland professor, in October.

At that point, the tiny Nordic nation of 300,000 had already been under heavy strain, with its stock market shut down, its largest bank being nationalized, and the value of the Icelandic krona deteriorating to near-junk status.

Protests from Icelanders grew more and more frequent over alleged government mishandling of the moves made to desperately shore up Iceland's tiny economy. Throwing another wrench into the machine, Iceland's government itself announced later in the month that it was unable to meet the country's budgetary needs.

Such a move was perhaps a little unusual for a sophisticated Scandinavian country that had consistently topped UN lists as the most developed country in the world, but nonetheless believable in the “new economic order” where previously unshakable titans have begun to fall.

However, Britain was especially displeased by the fact that the – now nationalized – Landsbanki bank contained about $39 billion (CAD) of British money before its nationalization. The British government, despite the fact that the entire country's GDP is only $12 billion annually, demanded that Iceland's government repay British depositors the $6 billion of failed assets, which Iceland's finance minister told the Royal Treasury that it would do.

The following week, Alastair Darling, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, appeared on British radio on October 8, claiming that “Iceland has no intention of honouring their commitments to the [British] government.”

Later that day, a curious sight greeted visitors to the Royal Treasury's website. On a mothballed page listing countries subject to embargoes and financial sanctions, between Iraq and Syria sat a new arrival - Iceland.

As it turns out, the Labour government of Gordon Brown had invoked a heavy-handed 2001 antiterrorism bill – the country's equivalent to Bill C-36 or the PATRIOT Act – against Landsbanki, the Central Bank of Iceland, and the Icelandic government. Therefore, Iceland was officially considered a terrorist haven.

The bill is only usually applied to countries designated as “rogue states,” with the aim of paralyzing or severely weakening those countries' regimes as well as their popular resolve through financial sanctions. The result of such sanctions are prohibitions on trade with the country in question, which also make it impossible to transfer money or goods.

By association, Icelanders are considered terrorists, said Icelandic Prime Minister Geir Haarde to TIME magazine two weeks ago.

Using that law was the only way for Britain to freeze the British assets of Landsbanki and therefore recoup investors' money at some future time.

However, it had the side-effect of delivering a staggering blow against a weakened country that sees itself as a “scapegoat to distract attention [from British incompetence in managing their own debt],” said the Guardian.

Even in Britain, 100,000 jobs depend directly on Icelandic investment, and the fate of the $39 billion remains unresolved. Icelandic students studying abroad have faced student loans that have disintegrated in value, and are unable to receive any money at all from home, reported TIME.

A petition to the British government by the hastily-formed Icelanders Are Not Terrorists has received over 80,000 signatures, with a flood of user-contributed messages delivering words of support for the Icelandic people and condemnation for the actions of the British, whom Icelanders have traditionally admired for centuries. An exhibition of photos of 79 “Icelandic Terrorists” by Icelandic photographer Thorkell Thorkelsson drew massive crowds when it was unveiled three weeks ago in Reykjavik, the country's capital.

Since Britain is the biggest importer of goods to the country, Icelanders are finding that getting their hands on some vital consumer goods is proving difficult. Icelandic companies have found that doing business and trading currencies with companies in other countries is proving to be very difficult or impossible, due to the Treasury's sanctions.

According to a press release by the group behind the petition, recouping the money the British government has claimed it is owed will be significantly more difficult thanks to the fallout of their actions.

…

The country was ranked by the United Nations as the most developed country in the world, as well as the place with the highest quality of life, last year. In addition, Reporters Sans Frontières of France ranked it as the most free and democratic country in the world based on freedom of the press.

…

Like most other Western countries, Iceland was shouldering a heavy consumer debt burden, with consumer use of credit soaring between 1996 and 2008. Demand for consumer goods, which are traditionally extremely expensive because they must be shipped over long distances, was at insatiably high levels.

Now, in the wake of October's events, Iceland has debt worth 110% of its gross domestic product, according to the IMF.

My reaction: In the span of one year, Iceland has gone from being "the most developed country in the world" to a terrorist nation with a failed economy and currency. The only question left is: how far will Iceland fall? Will there be anarchy, violence, and starvation?

I will continue to track developments in Iceland for the grim preview it offers the US.

Steal Peoples Money, Cut Off Food -Riots Result

2008-11-25T16:46:00.000-08:00

Iceland's Our Future?

2008-11-24T17:41:00.000-08:00

Bolivia .. Safe and Cheap

2008-11-23T18:08:00.000-08:00

A beautiful and inexpensive place without a tourist in sight. Sound like a dream? It's not. This slice of paradise does exist. Nestled high in the Andes mountains of South America, Bolivia is a little-known retreat exotically spiced with a unique Latin and Native American flavor. Bolivia has a lot to offer…a very low cost of living, unspoiled natural environment, friendly people and a range of climates to suit virtually every taste. Property prices are among the lowest in Latin America and it has the potential to become the world's next great expatriate haven.
Bolivia has long been a favorite destination of adventure travelers, yet few mainstream American and European tourists make it to this secretive outpost. Why? Well, perhaps it's because Bolivia isn't a destination you stumble across by accident. Shrouded by great mountain ranges, it lies hidden between Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Peru and Paraguay.

The country's most famous visitors were Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, the American outlaws who fled to South America in the early 1900s - they are said to have had their last stand with the Bolivian army and are buried here. As recent as the 1980s, wise old men in towns throughout the Bolivian highlands could be heard gossiping about the fate of two of America's most notorious outlaws. In Bolivia, myths come thick and fast, and one legend has it that the Incas have an underground network of secret passageways on an island located in Lake Titicaca, which is praised by visitors as being one of the deepest blue and most beautiful bodies of water in the world.

Leave your worries at home

Bolivia is one of those countries that seduce you through sheer personality. The colorful bustle of its markets and street vendors, the liveliness of its nightlife, and the charm and friendliness of its people, make it one of the most livable places in Latin America. Bolivia has a bit of something for everyone: charming old-world colonial towns with great restaurants, museums, and nightlife, as well as slow-paced cozy developments in rural areas near indigenous villages, where hunting, gathering and fishing are a way of life.

Shannon Roxborough is an international consultant, writer and researcher with a broad background in international travel, foreign relocation and expatriate issues. He has advised travelers, executives, diplomats and retirees on all aspects of living, working and doing business around the world. He has lived in the Far East, served on the board of directors of American Citizens Abroad and worked as a stringer (freelance correspondent) for Money and Fortune Magazines. He has written the "Ask Mr. International" column for the International Employment Gazette magazine and recently authored an eBook entitled, "The Guide to Living and Retiring in Bolivia."

The climate is another plus. Temperatures in Bolivia range from the mid 60s to the low 80s, with the average being in the mid 70s. Even the hottest days are always tempered by cooling breezes.
Bolivia is a republic with a presidential system of government. Its fully democratic, American style system retains the respect of individual rights and freedoms.
Bolivia enjoys a remarkably low crime rate, with violent crime being virtually unknown and theft not commonplace.
Americans, Canadians, Australians and most Europeans don't need a visa to spend up to 90 days as a tourist in Bolivia and nonresidents may buy property.
Live the good life on less than $9,000 a year. Besides the fact that there's no such thing as a rat race in Bolivia, its biggest asset is its cost of living. You can stay in a clean, friendly hotel in the city center for $8 a night (or US$125 per month) where every meal costs less than $3. Groceries are up to 70% cheaper than in the United States or Europe. A routine trip to a good English-speaking doctor will set you back no more than $20. You can take in an American movie for only $2 or get a taxi across town for as little as 80 cents. And you're certainly not going to have high utility bills: Electricity and heating costs average $15 a month.
Cheap Real Estate

To give you an example of the costs, here are some properties on offer right now:

Old Town La Paz

A 5-bedroom, 3-bathroom, 2500-square-foot home in a wealthy affluent neighborhood with a large garden, a garage, an alarm system, and every modern convenience, for $80,000.
A 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom, 750-square-foot apartment with a dining room, a kitchen, central heating, a balcony, and parking, costs $17,000.
A 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, 2,500-square-foot chalet in a quiet neighborhood with a garden and two-car garage going for about $46,000.
A 2-bedroom, brand new handicap-accessible home in a charming expatriate development with a private pond and palm tress for only $28,000.
A well-groomed lot to build on in the same community for prices ranging from $4,800 to $7,000, with good shopping, the shore and an airport within walking distance.
Rentals from $75 per month
Realtors also offer short and long-term rentals. Such rentals are downright cheap by First World standards. Long-term rental apartments begin at around $75 per month for something small, with houses starting at the $200 mark.

You could certainly rent a nice two-bedroom apartment in one of the best parts of town for $175 to $350 a month. And you can lease a luxury three-bedroom suburban home would rent for between $275 and $400 per month; homes with private swimming pools start at around $500 monthly. For $275 monthly, you could opt for a two-bedroom apartment with parking, gas, electricity, a telephone, and a housekeeper.

These deals and many more make little-known Bolivia worth investigating.

Important Note
On August 4, 2002, Bolivia's Congress elected Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada, a U.S.-educated, pro-market former president, to lead Bolivia for the next five years. This is good news for expatriates and retirees, providing the perfect window of opportunity to get in to Bolivia on the ground floor, before tourists start flocking.

Worst Yet to Com , IMF Chief

2008-11-22T20:35:00.000-08:00

The IMF's chief economist Olivier Blanchard

The IMF's chief economist has warned that the global financial crisis is set to worsen and that the situation will not improve until 2010, a report said Saturday.
Olivier Blanchard also warned that the institution does not have the funds to solve every economic problem.

"The worst is yet to come," Blanchard said in an interview with the Finanz und Wirtschaft newspaper, adding that "a lot of time is needed before the situation becomes normal."

He said economic growth would not kick in until 2010 and it will take another year before the global financial situation became normal again.

The International Monetary Fund on Friday promised to help Latvia deal with its economic crisis after it assisted Iceland, Hungary, Ukraine, Serbia and Pakistan.

But Blanchard said the IMF was not able to solve all financial issues, in particular problems of liquidity.

Withdrawals of capital leading to problems of liquidity "can be so significant that the IMF alone cannot counter them," he said, adding that massive withdrawals of investments from emerging countries could represent "hundreds of billions of dollars.

"We do not have this money. We never had it," he said.

The IMF had spent a fifth of its 250 billion dollar (200 billion euro) fund in the last two weeks, Blanchard added.

He also urged central banks around the world to cut interest rates, after the Swiss National Bank made a surprise one percentage point rate cut Thursday.

The central banks "should lower interest rates to as close to zero as possible," he said.

Schiff Hit Fan, Get Out the Dollar!

2008-11-20T19:09:00.000-08:00

DOMINICAN Republic-Deserted

2008-11-19T13:42:00.000-08:00

PUNTA CANA, Dominican Republic (AP) - The ocean glows a milky turquoise. Tiny waves lap at the powder-beige sand, in no rush to reach the line of postcard-perfect palm trees.
Hundreds of luxury villas are positioned to take in the view, but there are no guests. There are no roofs either; neatly tied bundles of red tiles are stacked outside. The wind slams doors and rustles the yellowed newspaper taped to the windows.

The paralyzed work scene at the Cap Cana resort, a development including four luxury hotels, three golf courses and a mega-yacht marina, is a victim of the global financial crisis that has hit the Caribbean's tourism industry especially hard.

Cap Cana fired 500 workers last month after Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy and a $250 million loan fell through. Talks to re-negotiate a $100 million short-term loan collapsed last week, and more layoffs are expected.

"Our project has been affected by the economic tsunami that has paralyzed the global financial markets," said Cap Cana President Ricardo Hazoury.

Construction is also paralyzed at the Ritz-Carlton Molasses Reef resort in secluded West Caicos, where 60 Chinese workers revolted last month to demand back wages. About 160 workers have been sent home to China, and it's unclear when construction will resume at the hotel, marina and condominium project, which is three-quarters complete.

This month, the sprawling Atlantis resort in the Bahamas laid off about 800 workers, citing low occupancy rates. Baha Mar Resorts Ltd. laid off about 40 employees at its Sheraton Resort in the Bahamas and 40 more at the Wyndham Nassau Resort. The Bahamas Hotel Catering and Allied Workers Union has called a demonstration Thursday to demand government aid.

"I've been in the business 38 years. I have seen the impact of the Gulf War. I have seen the recession of the '80s. Certainly Sept. 11," said Robert Sands, senior vice president of external affairs at Baha Mar. "But nothing has been of a global nature, which makes the current financial situation we're in much more worrisome."

In Puerto Rico, the Caribe Hilton laid off more than 50 people this month because of rising costs and sluggish occupancy rates. The last time the hotel had to lay off workers was after the Sept. 11 attacks, General Manager Jose Campo said.

"What worries me is that this will last longer," he said. "We are mounting an aggressive campaign, but the situation is what it is."

Even the normally busy holiday season is expected to be relatively quiet.

"There is space available for the holiday season and beyond," said Alec Sanguinetti, CEO of the Caribbean Hotel & Tourism Association. "This is often a time when hotels are sold out and vacationers are looking for any place that has availability."

Workers are spending their days off looking for jobs outside the tourism industry. Others have already been sent home.

Victor Felipe Feliz, 24, has been feeding his two children on store credit since he lost his construction job at Cap Cana last month.

"I need to work so I can buy Pampers, so I can buy food," he said. "It has been a couple of months since I bought clothes. I can't afford anything."

Cap Cana plans to fire another 1,000 workers in the coming months, according to a company official who spoke only on condition of anonymity because he wasn't authorized to release the information. But Cap Cana President Ricardo Hazoury said he expects the project to go forward as the company outsources certain services.

The 50-square-mile (130-square-kilometer) development is nestled in the Dominican Republic's easternmost point amid lush jungle. Its developers include Deutsche Bank, the Trump Organization and the Ritz Carlton Hotel Company.

Cap Cana runs more like a city than a private development. It generates its own power and water and has hundreds of villas and condominiums—even a school. Some of the villas and hotels are inhabited, but most remain under construction.

"We used to have a lot of workers—brick layers, plumbers, electricians," said Wilkin Cuevamato, who was laid off but later found work at another Cap Cana property. "The majority have left and gone home."

Tourists willing to make last-minute travel arrangements will find some real bargains as hotels react to the soft period, according to Scott Berman, a tourism adviser for Pricewaterhouse Coopers in Miami.

"If you're flexible and have time on your hands, you're going to find some favorable deals this winter," he said.

But cheaper rooms are often offset by expensive airfare, according to Renaldo Inesta, division manager for AAA in Puerto Rico. American Airlines, the main carrier to the island, has cut back flights by 44 percent, though other airlines are stepping in to reduce the overall drop to 14 percent.

Beyond the holiday season, the picture is bleak. Getting money to finance new projects will be difficult amid the credit squeeze. A new U.N. report predicts access to external financing for the region will be limited, and what is available will come with high interest rates.

But some remain optimistic. In September, even as the financial crisis was gathering steam, Hilton Hotels Corp. announced plans to build 17 hotels in the Caribbean, adding to the 13 it already has.

"We have analyzed the region," said Gregory Rockett, who is overseeing the expansion. "We are very confident that in the next five years we can do these numbers."

And Sanguinetti points out that for North Americans, the Caribbean remains a quick and attractive getaway.

"We provide a relaxing escape from the tensions that people are facing at work during this economic crisis," he said. "We expect that pent-up demand will be released."

Worried About Food, Build a Greenhouse

2008-11-17T18:32:00.000-08:00

Build a Million Dollar House Dirt Cheap

2008-11-17T18:23:00.000-08:00

Iceland Bailout $6 Billion-Protester Take to Streets

2008-11-17T06:15:00.000-08:00

by Eric deCarbonnel

Bloomberg reports that Icelanders take to streets to protest policy makers' failures:

(emphasis mine)

Icelanders Take to Streets to Protest Policy Makers' Failures
By Helga Kristin Einarsdottir and Tasneem Brogger

Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Icelanders demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Geir Haarde and central bank governor David Oddsson marched to the parliament today to protest the leaders they hold responsible for the collapse of the nation's economy.

About 6,000 people out of a national population of 320,000 participated in Reykjavik, according to police Chief Superintendent Geir Jon Thorisson. Turnout doubled from a similar demonstration one week before, he said.

The march was peaceful, though some eggs, tomatoes and yogurt were thrown at the parliament building and rolls of toilet paper were burned in front of the main entrance.

``I criticize that those who made the mess are still in office,'' said Gunnar Hersveinn, a philosopher. ``I want to see change in the central bank, the government and the Financial Supervisory Authority. Elections should be held soon.''

The Atlantic island, which had the fifth-highest per capita income in the world last year, now needs a $6 billion International Monetary Fund-led loan to finance imports and to create enough foreign currency reserves to support a free- floating currency.

Central bank forecasts that the economy will contract 8.3 percent next year may prove optimistic if the loan isn't approved soon, said Lars Christensen, chief analyst at Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen.

``There has been nothing but secrecy surrounding what happened,'' Hersveinn said. ``Every time I wake up, something new I did not know has emerged. It feels like being in a fog all the time.''

IMF

The IMF is withholding approval of its $2.1 billion loan until other lenders agree to fulfill their commitments to a wider bailout, Fund spokesman Bill Murray said on Nov. 11.

Norway has pledged 500 million euros ($635 million), the Faroe Islands 300 million kroner ($50 million) and Poland $200 million. That still leaves Iceland well short of the $6 billion it says it needs.

Complicating talks are U.K. and Dutch demands that the government repay depositors at the Internet unit of Iceland's collapsed Landsbanki Island hf. Those debts may amount to as much as 5.5 billion pounds ($8.2 billion), the size of Iceland's economy, according to a report by Jon Danielsson, an economist at the London School of Economics.

Iceland's government has accepted it will have to reach a negotiated solution to the dispute with the U.K. and the Netherlands to get the IMF loan, the newspaper Morgunbladid said on Nov. 13, without saying where it got the information.

The krona collapsed last month, and has lost more than two thirds of its value since the start of the year, following the failure and state takeover of the country's three biggest banks. The central bank tried to peg the krona to a basket of currencies on Oct. 7 and abandoned the effort the following day. Policy makers are now striving to resurrect the currency through daily auctions with local banks.

My reaction: The situation in Iceland is worth watching because it offers an ominous preview of what awaits the United States. Right now, Iceland's Krona is under foreign-currency lockdown, and the small island state is using up its currency reserves to buy essentials such as oil, grain and medical supplies for the winter. Luckily for Iceland, since it failed early (more countries will go under) and is a small country, it will get partially bailed out by the IMF and a few other countries. Unfortunately for the US, there is no way the IMF or anyone else will bail us out when the dollar collapses.

In case you are wondering, a 6 billion dollar loan for a country of 300,000 works out at about $20,000 per capita. It is going to take a lot of fish to repay that (Iceland's only major industry left is fishing).

Posted by Eric deCarbonnel at 8:07 PM

Orwell's Hell Hits Home

2008-11-16T16:26:00.000-08:00

By Bruce Walker

It has been sixty years since George Orwell wrote his chilling dystopian classic, 1984, and it has been thirty years since we saw the creepiest example of educated and free people willingly walking into a living dystopia. November 18, 1978, three decades ago, 918 people drank Kool-Aid laced with cyanide. Jim Jones, the communist leader of Jonestown, Guyana, had become "Big Brother." Soviet and Communist Chinese propaganda films and condemnations of capitalist and imperialist America blared continually to the subjects of this island of Leftist Hell.

Jonestown ended in mass suicide, but the real horror was that ordinary people, Americans like you and I, had become so decoupled from reality and morality that they could be led to surrender everything, even their lives, intoxicated only with the venom of modern Leftism. These were Orwell's Children.

We are drifting into the sort of horrific future he described. Too many of us for comfort or solace have become just like the denizens of Jonestown: Orwell's children -- a new generation of creature enraged into constant militancy against eternal enemies, oblivious to the notion of a Blessed Creator, melded into the consciousness of the party hive, divorced from history, hypnotized by images, inoculated against reason, stripped of family, and existing only to serve the cause.

Orwell did not write his book in a vacuum. 1984 describes the Soviet Union (the book describes Stalinist Russia so well so that subjects of that evil empire wondered when Orwell had lived there, though he had just described what he saw from the outside.) 1984 also describes Nazism and every other odious totalitarianism, which its secret police and propaganda machine and atomized subjects. But Orwell was very much also writing about the democratic western nations. His book was a warning of what could happen here. Oceania, the only totalitarian superstate actually descried in 1984, was largely America and the British Empire.

There were specific elements necessary for nations with a heritage of freedom to slide into the most absolute and abject slavery. These elements existed in Nazi Germany, they existed in Soviet Russia, and they exist in our free democracies today. What are the characteristics of the Orwellian state?

Start with God. He must go. The great Russian novelists knew this: "Without God, everything is permitted." In Oceania, God simply does not exist. The Nazis bragged that they would raise a generation "...without ever having heard of the Sermon on the Mount or the Golden Rule, to say nothing of the Ten Commandments." The Soviet persecuted anyone who followed the God of Jews and Christians. God is hounded in our world today. A generation of Orwell's Children are growing up without thinking about God at all or thinking that God is a silly idea cherished by sillier old fogies.

Truth must go too. Nazis embraced the "Big Lie." Soviets denied that honesty, per se, mattered. In Orwell's Oceania, the Inner Party members learn to even lie to themselves and to hold utterly contradictory beliefs at the same time. Truth and honesty have little meaning to Orwell's Children in our world. All truth is relative, all honesty a sham.

Language must be brought to heel. The Nazis did this by inventing meaningless words like "Aryan science." Marxism foisted upon us words like "capitalism," which means nothing at all but which has so infected our minds that we reflexively use this silly nonsense word instead of freedom. Politically correct language is rampant. We come to view words like "discriminate" as inherently evil, and other words like "viable fetal mass" have replaced the reality of murdered babies.

Image and symbols replace words. Hitler, whose disciples seldom recalled what Hitler said, always recalled the raw imagery of their leader. Stalin's portrait was as inescapable in the Soviet Union as the portrait of Big Brother in Oceania. We live in a word of symbols and images. Conservatives succeed in books and talk radio, media that deal in words. Orwell's Children live in the realm of symbols and images.

The books of the Nazis and Soviets were unreadable tomes like Mein Kampf, The Myth of the Twentieth Century (the two Nazi "masterpieces") or vast empty volumes of Marxist-Leninism. Is it an accident that the giant who most resisted this evil, Solzhenitsyn, was a devout Christian who mastered the written word better than any stooge of Hitler or the Politburo ever could?

Immutable oppressors are the final nasty element in dystopia. Hitler blamed Jews for everything. Stalin blamed kulaks and his enemies in the party for everything. Subjects of Orwell's Oceania saw Emmanuel Goldstein as the eternal, immutable enemy of the party. Today there is a drearily predictable list of oppressors. Christians, men, white people, the "rich" (whatever that is supposed to mean), America, and Israel are oppressors and nothing can ever change that.

Orwell even told us, by name, the professionals who would lead us into the nightmare of 1984: "sociologists," "teachers," "bureaucrats," "journalists," "professional politicians," "scientists," "trade union organizers," "publicity experts," and "technicians." (The term "community organizer" was unknown to him.) Those who enslave were those who taught students, who created the news, who sat in the halls of government power, and who defined official "truth" (at least truth de jour.)

Orwell's Children live among us now, not in tiny numbers in weird Marxist cults like Jim Jones' People Temple, but as leaders of Congress, as the establishment of academia, as the producers of news and entertainment, as the administrators of public schools, as the "experts" in a thousand myriad and odd fields of putative "expertise." They infatuate our bored children with the only reality and the only diversion that many can find. They wait for the rest of us to grow older and to die.

Will these children inherit the earth? History, not theology, has shown a single defense against the spreading contagion of Orwell's Children. Solzhenitsyn found God in the godless Gulag. Michael Power in early 1939 wrote: "In the Christianity of the German people, the National Socialist has found the one enemy it could not vanquish" - and Christians in Germany, alone, chose to voluntarily seek death before selling their souls to Nazism.

The Jewish refusniks proved indigestible to the brutal Soviet police state. When all else failed the Jewish people under the Nazis, devout Jews like my wife's mother clung to the Blessed Creator and survived the Holocaust. God can touch us all. God can protect us all from evil (not from harm - we all suffer and we all die - but from the much greater danger of the sort of evil Orwell described.)

Education, science, technological gadgetry, good medical care - all of this can not stop us from sliding into a massive Jonestown, a realized Oceania, a place marked by Dante's grim caution "Abandon hope, all you who enter here." We are all anchored in belief, but it is what we believe that matters. We can believe in the lies of Big Brother, which change each day with the needs of the party or we can believe in the truth of a living God. We can become the children of Orwell or the special creatures of God. Everything -- our nation, our world, our families, our communities -- flows from that choice.

Bruce Walker is the author of two books: Sinisterism: Secular Religion of the Lie, and his recently published book, The Swastika against the Cross: The Nazi War on Christianity.

Page Printed from: http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/11/orwells_children.html at November 16, 2008 - 07:25:37 PM EST

OBAMA 's War on Suburbs?

2008-11-15T19:32:00.000-08:00

The Washington Post reports that Barack Obama will be our first president whose heritage is from the central cities since Grover Cleveland, who left the office in 1897. Prior to becoming president, Cleveland had been a reform mayor of Buffalo, and then governor of New York. I think they missed one: Theodore Roosevelt grew up in New York City and represented part of the city in the legislature. But presidents since then have been from suburbs or small towns.

Obama, however, was born in Honolulu, went to school in Jakarta, Los Angeles, and New York, and got his famous job as a community organizer in Chicago. His only “suburban” time was getting his law degree in Cambridge, MA.

From one perspective, the war on sprawl is really a war between central cities and suburbs. The central cities see the suburbs growing and want some of that growth (and the tax revenues that come with it) for themselves. By demonizing the suburbs, at the very least they have a chance to grab more than their share of federal and state funds for housing and transportation.

So, will Obama be biased in favor of the cities over the suburbs? One hint is the announcement that he is going to have a “White House chief of urban policy.” Technically, urban includes both cities and their suburbs. But to many central city residents — particularly those from big cities like Chicago — the suburbs are little more than a hostile wasteland.

Former Secretary of Housing & Urban Development Henry Cisneros, and his former chief of staff, Bruce Katz, think Obama should broaden his scope to metropolitan areas. Metropolitan areas, “have become the engines of national prosperity,” they say, so Obama should “shift from an outdated focus on ‘urban policy’ to an expansive, asset-driven perspective of ‘metro policy.’”

Just what do they think metropolitan areas are? The Census Bureau defines metropolitan areas as urban areas plus all the rural land that happens to be in the same counties as the urban areas. Those rural lands are no more “engines of national prosperity” than rural areas in counties that don’t have urban areas. But lots of data are presented in terms of metropolitan areas rather than urban areas because county lines are easier to define than the somewhat ambiguous line between “urban” and “rural.” In other words, the difference between “metro” and “urban” is a statistical artifact, not some “asset-driven” trend towards greater inclusiveness.

Cisneros and Katz go onto say that an Office of Metropolitan Policy “would actively engage the true metropolitan experts — local corporate, civic, and government leaders — in the design and implementation of new, cutting-edge policies.” In other words, they think the people with their hands out for federal bailouts and other pork are the “true experts.”

We’ll know more when Obama announces selections for such offices as secretaries of transportation and HUD and director of the EPA. If he picks people like Cisneros or Katz to head some office, he will be getting people who have great credentials but don’t really understand what is going on.
http://ti.org/antiplanner/?p=568

Dead DOLLAR! Amero Dinero Por favor

2008-11-14T19:49:00.000-08:00

A few words of encouragement

2008-11-14T11:42:00.000-08:00

Business Behavior ...the collapse

2008-11-13T21:25:00.000-08:00

Kiwiland Home Prices

2008-11-13T20:00:00.001-08:00

Urban Survivalist-Storing Water

2008-11-12T17:28:00.000-08:00

Fruit & Survival

2008-11-12T17:19:00.000-08:00

Glenn Becks, What's Heading Our Way

2008-11-12T14:23:00.000-08:00

CALLER: I'm going to have to store food for a year to keep my family alive?

GLENN: Who do you think you're talking to? I mean, it's not like you're calling, you know, Willy Wonka, Mr. Sunshine. Yeah, I do think it's going to get bad. Now, do you need a year's worth of food? I don't know. That's up to you. Do you need to buy what you can in bulk and store what you can that you consume? Yeah. Don, it is just, look at it this way. Don't look at it like, "The world is going to end" because you know what, Don? Many are going to survive. Remember in the Great Depression not everybody was hurt. If you had a job, you had a hard time making ends meet, et cetera, et cetera but you got through it and businesses -- not only did business survive, businesses that understood quality thrived, okay? So you may not be affected; you may be. But when you're looking at ways to, "What's the best thing I can do for my dollar," everybody needs to start looking for value. That's why companies like Nordstrom's are having a hard time. Nordstrom's is a great store. I grew up in Seattle. Nordstrom's is a great, great store. However, Wal-Mart is going to be the place that is really going to weather the storm because you can buy more for your dollar at Wal-Mart, okay? So it doesn't mean anything bad about Nordstrom's. It just means people are going to be looking for the best value for their dollar. You have to do the same thing. When it comes to food, understand the best place you can put your dollar right now isn't hard goods that are going to increase in value. You don't have to buy gold. You buy food. If inflation is -- it's already 13%. They will tell you that it's 5, but if you figure it the way it has always been, it's already 13%. You add another 5, 10, 15 points on inflation, it's difficult for a lot of people to buy food. If you had three months of food, if you had six months of food, it would allow you to relieve some -- it's not that you are going to be using all of it all the time unless you're out of a job. You can use that to relieve some of the pressure, you know, in tough times. Believe me, it is a smart investment, it is something that will relieve stress. And again, Don, your family may be good but it is -- this is the theme of what I've been talking about for the last three weeks. What gives me hope is that people are waking up. We are strong, rugged individuals. Each of us have amazing power within us. Each of us make a difference.

Now, you have a choice to make. You are going to say, "I've got a great business and I'm going to survive." Well, you know what? I am, too, brother. But it's not just our responsibility to help ourselves and help our own businesses and employ our, you know, employees and the people that work around us. It is also our responsibility to help others in need. You are going to be a shelter for somebody, you are going to need to be a leader for somebody. But with tough times ahead you are going to be prepared. The stress it will relieve for not only you but others around you will be a great blessing because you are going to feel like the September 12th person. You are going to feel, you are going to -- a metaphor for what is coming is September 11th. It's not going to be an event but it's going to be something that scares a lot of people and they don't know what it is and you need to be the person that is either standing in the street corner with the boot or the one that rolls down your window and puts the money in the boot at every single block. Not because you have to but because you can and because you want to. Because you're a September 12th American.

FEMA CAMPS?

2008-11-11T16:29:00.000-08:00

End of Civility?

2008-11-11T13:05:00.000-08:00

Mini Nuke Plants for Home Use

2008-11-09T11:42:00.000-08:00

Mini nuclear plants to power 20,000 homes£13m shed-size reactors will be delivered by lorryJohn Vidal and Nick Rosen guardian.co.uk, Sunday November 9 2008 00.01 GMT The Observer, Sunday November 9 2008 larger | smaller Nuclear power plants smaller than a garden shed and able to power 20,000 homes will be on sale within five years, say scientists at Los Alamos, the US government laboratory which developed the first atomic bomb.

The miniature reactors will be factory-sealed, contain no weapons-grade material, have no moving parts and will be nearly impossible to steal because they will be encased in concrete and buried underground.

The US government has licensed the technology to Hyperion, a New Mexico-based company which said last week that it has taken its first firm orders and plans to start mass production within five years. 'Our goal is to generate electricity for 10 cents a watt anywhere in the world,' said John Deal, chief executive of Hyperion. 'They will cost approximately $25m [£13m] each. For a community with 10,000 households, that is a very affordable $250 per home.'

Deal claims to have more than 100 firm orders, largely from the oil and electricity industries, but says the company is also targeting developing countries and isolated communities. 'It's leapfrog technology,' he said.

The company plans to set up three factories to produce 4,000 plants between 2013 and 2023. 'We already have a pipeline for 100 reactors, and we are taking our time to tool up to mass-produce this reactor.'

The first confirmed order came from TES, a Czech infrastructure company specialising in water plants and power plants. 'They ordered six units and optioned a further 12. We are very sure of their capability to purchase,' said Deal. The first one, he said, would be installed in Romania. 'We now have a six-year waiting list. We are in talks with developers in the Cayman Islands, Panama and the Bahamas.'

The reactors, only a few metres in diameter, will be delivered on the back of a lorry to be buried underground. They must be refuelled every 7 to 10 years. Because the reactor is based on a 50-year-old design that has proved safe for students to use, few countries are expected to object to plants on their territory. An application to build the plants will be submitted to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission next year.

'You could never have a Chernobyl-type event - there are no moving parts,' said Deal. 'You would need nation-state resources in order to enrich our uranium. Temperature-wise it's too hot to handle. It would be like stealing a barbecue with your bare hands.'

Other companies are known to be designing micro-reactors. Toshiba has been testing 200KW reactors measuring roughly six metres by two metres. Designed to fuel smaller numbers of homes for longer, they could power a single building for up to 40 years.

Be a KIWI????

2008-11-07T17:25:00.000-08:00

OK I'm Crazy, Humor Me

2008-11-06T17:45:00.000-08:00

I don’t know any other way to say this. I have always been critical of the doom and gloom crowd especially when it comes to Global Warming and people that use fear to profit from business schemes. I am not a gold bug or a La Rouse supporter. But I’ve been compelled by conscience to tell you this and I don’t even own any silver, yet. Heck, I never thought Y2K was anything but a joke.

Our economy is mortally wounded. The value of the dollar has been looted. The band aids the wiz kids in Washington and New York are placing on this gaping wound are for show. Our government and the Fed know their remedies will not work and time is quickly running out on the US Dollar and our government’s finances. I heard the financial disaster that’s about to befall our country will be similar to the towers falling on 911. It’s going to come fast and you need to take a few precautions to protect the health of you and your family.

Buy a few silver coins and 50# of beans and rice. Blow a couple of hundred bucks on an idea that may sound totally crazy to you now. If I’m wrong, give to coins to your grandkids someday, donate the food to the local food bank and flame me in an email.

If I am right it may be the difference between surviving and starving. I know that really sounds crazy but this can happen in our country in the very near future. I know Global Warming is a hoax but I believe this is real.

Do a little research; I believe you’re going to see some scary things in the next few months.

Let me know what you see, deanphilpot@yahoo.com

Trends

2008-11-06T13:58:00.000-08:00

A European View of Economic Crisis

2008-11-06T05:26:00.000-08:00

Europe's looming crisis
Iain Macwhirter

Published 30 October 2008

It all started with sub-prime loans in the United States. Or did it? As the IMF is called in to bail out failing economies, the scale of European exposure to toxic debt is becoming clear

Stockbrokers in the Frankfurt stock exchange.

It was Europe’s dark secret. While American banks were lending irresponsibly to homeowners who couldn’t pay, European banks were lending to emerging countries who couldn’t pay. Europe’s sub-prime crisis has now come home as heavily-indebted nations of the eastern bloc – Hungary, Ukraine, Belarus, Bulgaria, the Baltic states – are collapsing one by one into the arms of the IMF. “Icelandisation” is the new spectre stalking Europe.

And, as with sub-prime in urban America, this latest crisis was shockingly predictable. I visited Latvia at the height of the credit bubble 18 months ago, and it was clearly an accident waiting to happen. Riga, the capital, was bristling with upmarket shopping malls and classy bars that were all quite empty. Stalin-era flats were being sold for $200,000 in a country where the average wage was less than $400 a month. Latvia has hardly any industry, no energy and few natural resources apart from trees. But such was the irrational exuberance of foreign banks like Swedbank, it was awash with credit.

According to the Bank for International Settlements, western European banks have lent more than $1.5trn to eastern Europe. Austria has loans equivalent to 80 per cent of GDP and stands to make huge losses as Hungary and Ukraine collapse.

This week, the Austrian government had to cancel an auction of government bonds because it could not be sure that investors would buy them. It is not inconceivable that Austria itself could end up needing to be rescued.

Other European countries implicated in global sub-prime include Spain, which has loaned immense sums ($316bn) to Latin American countries such as Argentina. Britain has $329bn tied up in Asia - or did until values collapsed in the Asian stock market rout. Japan's Nikkei index fell to a 26-year low this week, wiping out tens of billions of yen. The losses are now winging their way home to British pension funds and banks such as the Royal Bank of Scotland and HSBC.

Banks behaving badly, then, but what's new there? Well, the Bank of England told us this week that global losses so far from the financial crisis amount to $2.8trn. But this includes only a fraction of the likely losses from global sub- prime, which have yet to land on balance sheets.

Until last week's rout in the Asian bourses, there were still economists who believed that emerging markets would not be greatly affected by the credit crunch. But the theory that developing countries, led by China and India, have "decoupled" from the west, no longer holds water. It is clear that they have been dependent on consumer spending in America and Europe all along - and now that western consumers are staying away from the shops, no one is buying their goods. The Baltic Dry Shipping Index, which tracks the cost of hiring ships for international trade, has fallen by 79 per cent this year, itself a signal of a severe global recession.

Gordon Brown's hints that Britain might be able to spend its way out of this recession has to be considered in this light. There is no guarantee, in such a climate, that the British government would be able to borrow sufficient to pay for further bank rescues (they are sure to come), along with the cost of three million unemployed plus a programme of Keynesian infrastructure spending, however desirable that may be.

Investors are already shunning the pound because of anticipated losses from the UK property crash. Sterling has fallen 28 per cent this year, further than in the Exchange Rate Mechanism crisis of 1992, when interest rates rose to 15 per cent. We could be heading for a classic 1960s run on the pound.

The government had hoped that a devalued pound would stimulate exports and pull Britain out of recession, as happened after Black Wednesday 16 years ago, but the economic climate is different. We make few things to export now and the world is not in a buying mood anyway. And it has had quite enough of our "innovative" financial services. Thus Britain's current account deficit of 6 per cent - what used to be called loosely the balance of payments - has suddenly re-emerged as a major economic issue. Borrowing may be a good thing in a recession, but international financiers, sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds and banks may not agree.

The UK has the honour of having been the last G7 country to call in the IMF - during the 1976 sterling crisis - and while the government is not yet filling in the application forms, Britain's finances would not impress the Fund's economists. Standard IMF lending conditions are: privatisation, cuts in government spending and increased interest rates.

We are going in precisely the opposite direction, slashing interest rates, borrowing to spend and nationalising the banks.

Seen another way, this is only an indication of the extent to which the IMF is no longer fit for purpose in the Great Deleveraging. In recent years, the Fund has been an engine of Wall Street neoliberalism and financial deregulation, which leaves it ill-equipped to deal with the new international environment of deflation and banking crashes. In addition, there is a fiscal crisis facing the IMF. It has only about $250bn in reserves to throw at a rolling financial crisis that has now engulfed half the planet, from Iceland to Pakistan. Gordon Brown has called on energy-exporting nations to stump up more cash for the Fund, but there is a strong case, too, for reviewing how the IMF operates. Set up as part of the Bretton Woods financial system in 1944, the Fund was designed to cope with episodic currency crises. It is now having to deal with potential insolvencies in countries the size of Argentina as well as bailing out entire regions such as eastern Europe.

It will have to be very much better capitalised if it is going to perform this role, and it will have to abandon much of its free-market ideology.

We need a new set of interventionist institutions capable of managing financial rescues on an international scale.

Ultimately, what is needed is an international central bank with the resources to provide liquidity guarantees, recapitalise banks and regulate international financial flows. This is an immense task, and the world may not yet be ready for it. But it is not a new idea: John Maynard Keynes argued for precisely this during the Bretton Woods negotiations in 1944. He even suggested a world reserve currency "bancor". This is the kind of thinking we need today.

The alternative, if nothing is done, is international tension, even war. Consider failing Ukraine with its large Russian population and its dependency on Russia for energy supplies, right at the moment when Russian dreams of becoming an energy superpower have been dashed by the collapse of the oil price bubble. Or look at nuclear Pakistan, where the entire country is disintegrating in financial chaos. And what about China? Will all those unemployed workers - where half the toy manufacturers have gone bust - go peacefully back to the paddy fields?

When heads of the "G20" group of nations meet in Washington on 15 November for what is being called "Bretton Woods II" they will not just be dealing with a banking crisis. They will be deciding the future of civilisation.

Glenn Beck's Warnings : PREPARE

2008-11-06T05:05:00.000-08:00

Glenn Beck: What Can I Do to Prepare?
October 15, 2008 - 3:00 ET

Guys,

Here is the third letter I promised you. In my earlier letters I've explained "what happened" and "what's coming." Today, I want to answer the questions you've asked regarding "what can I do to prepare myself and my family."

Related Articles:
Glenn Beck: What happened?
Glenn Beck: What's Coming
The focus has to be on 'value' and 'values.' These are the concepts that too many of us have forgotten, celebrities dismissed as old-fashioned or politicians tried to convince us were no longer necessary.

The good news is that our current economic mess is manmade. We did this to ourselves by continuing to elect politicians who sold our country to militant community activists, greedy mortgage brokers and Wall Street types who placed profits above anything else. We were all involved, Republicans, Democrats and Independents. We made this problem by choosing to believe the lie that we could have it all and have it right now. But being manmade means we also have the capacity to solve it.

It is not going to be easy. I believe that the economy is going to get a lot worse. The 'experts' are telling us that we're headed towards at least 10% unemployment and a possible 10 year period of economic stagnation. I fear it could be much worse and so do many of the people that advise me on these matters.

What follows are the things that my family is doing to prepare for substantially tougher economic times.

Your Finances

I'm not a financial expert but even the 'experts' didn't know what our grandparents knew: unnecessary debt is something you have to avoid, it is not a good thing. In our version of the Roaring 20's, the financial elite had lawn parties in the Hamptons where invited guests arrived via helicopter. The parties we had didn't involve helicopters and other excesses but our job as responsible Americans will be to identify our 'helicopters.'

Soon, the Wall Street crowd will turn to the actual economy and the conversation and pressure will change to consumer spending. Remember, YOU are the engine of the US economy. Wall Street NEEDS you to spend. I pray that we hold fast to the 'storm clouds' that are still gathering and ignore the lures and lies that will attempt to hook you back into your old style 'lawn party.' We will continue to spend and consume. We just need to focus on a few out of fashion American values such as thrift, value and moderation.

You know what your family can afford and what it needs. Kids still need to go to college, broken cars still need to be repaired and worn-out appliances still have to be replaced. What needs to change is how we shop. We need to look for value and we MUST live within our means.

How do you know when you're getting something for a good value? Just imagine buying it (whatever it is) in front of dad. Can you imagine telling dad that you 'need' to spend an extra $3,000 so your car can come with that 'must have' automatic self-closing sunroof option? Or paying an extra $650 on a washing machine option so it can connect to the internet? I'm beginning to think that if dad won't spend the money on it, I probably don't need it. Dad is great at spotting value and it's his sense of values that makes him so good at it. I always try to think like my grandfather when I want to buy something, if in my head, he says, "Why, you've got a perfectly good one now," I know I don't need it.

The economy is in for a very rough landing. I think it's more and more probable that we hit a major long-term recession. That's not a reason to panic but if we know what's coming we can start to prepare now.

I don't know who you get your financial advice from (advisor, friend, on your own) but you need to ask these two questions:

First, what caused the current economic crisis?

If you can't answer this question or your financial planner can't give you an easily understandable answer, please get more information or think about replacing your financial planner. You need to know what got us here because that will help you understand what's coming.

Second, how bad will things get?

No one knows what's specifically coming our way but I do know that all possibilities are on the table. Whoever you're getting your financial advice from must be willing to admit that he or she doesn't have all the answers and that we are in relatively unchartered waters. If they don't think that this is a once in a lifetime event and just about anything could happen, move on.

Hyperinflation: Printing Money is Not the Answer

This is the real devil in our 'bailout' packages that seem to be coming every day. The same people that told me that there is no way we could go into a recession, let alone, a depression now tell me Wall Street and our politicians are too smart to create these doomsday conditions.

I don't know about you but I sure haven't been impressed with the Wall Street and Washington genius so far. After all, they weren't smart enough to figure out that 0% down on a 125% loans to individuals that were not required to present ID or a paycheck stubs was trouble.

I do know that if the answer was just to print more money our politicians would have solved this crisis $1.8 trillion dollars ago. But printing more money is not the answer, in fact, it's causing other problems and possibly setting us up for a long-term disaster. Every American must read up on and ponder what I believe is the real possibility of hyperinflation.

This past summer we had a $152 billion stimulus package, followed by a combined $123 billion bailout of AIG, which was followed by another $700 billion bailout bill. As I write this, politicians are promising swift action on yet another stimulus plan and the government has announced a direct injection of $250 billion into several large banks. No problem has ever been solved by just throwing money at it but plenty of problems have been caused by doing just that.

Countries that have tried to spend their way out of an economic crisis have always triggered inflation (i.e. Argentina, Israel and Iran). Hyperinflation is caused when people lose faith in the value of a currency, too much money is printed and there is no corresponding increase in productivity. So instead of printing $50 and $100 bills the government prints $300 and $500 bills but your $500 bill only buys $50 worth of goods. Soon the $500 bill is replaced by a $1000 bill.

One of the best examples of hyperinflation is the Weimar Republic where that government actually printed a one-trillion dollar bill and you still couldn't buy a newspaper with it.

Germany took its first inflationary steps when it decided to fight World War I on borrowed money. It didn't want to raise taxes and there was relatively little in national savings so it borrowed money to build and arm its war machine. Does this sound familiar? It should, it's what we're doing now.

The War which started in 1914 officially ended in 1919 and during that same period of time the prices of goods in Germany doubled. In other words, inflation was running about 20% a year.

Three years later, in 1922, those same goods doubled in price in just 5 months! The process continued to accelerate until menus in cafes had to be re-written throughout the day just to keep up with rising prices. When someone got paid they were met by their spouse who would literally run to spend the money as quickly as possible and no one saved money because the longer you held on to it the less you were able to buy. With no one saving and no countries lending any more money, the government did the only thing it could do, crank up the printing presses and print more money.

The same economic laws that applied to the Weimar Republic apply to America today.

Our government tells us that inflation was recently running at 5.4%. What they don't tell you is that in 1983 government changed the way they measure inflation. If the government used the same inflation measures that it used in 1983 inflation would be running between 10%-12%. Naturally, when the government altered the way it measured inflation it coincidently found that it wouldn't have to pay out as much money in Social Security and other benefits pegged to inflation.

We won't see a true spike in inflation until next fall. It's coming unless the government makes serious changes. If we continue to borrow billions of dollars a day from foreign countries while printing trillions more we are inviting, no begging, for hyperinflation to come and pay us a visit. Please consider this as you decide who to vote for in this upcoming election. Anyone, at any level, running for office who isn't talking about REAL and considerable cuts in government programs and avoiding new spending is either a fool or lying about what's coming.

You can prepare your family for economically tighter times. Our family has been preparing by buying food now that will last us for another 3 to 6 months. I want to be clear: we didn't run out and buy it all at once. Instead, when we went shopping and saw something on sale that we new we would be using in the next 3-6 months we bought a few more than we normally would. We're in the process of doing the same thing with our kids' clothes and shoes. They're growing-up and will need the next size-up in pants, shirts and shoes so Tania and I keep our eyes open for sales and when we see something that's a good value we buy it now knowing that in a year or two our kids will be able to use it and that prices could be substantially higher.

I think this is a good investment and a good way to spend money today that may be worth less tomorrow. Don't run out and liquidate your savings or assets to buy shoes and shirts for the next 10 years, plan and purchase with prudence and moderation.

Guns

You've asked me if you should go out and buy a gun. This is a very personal decision and I struggled for over 2 years trying to make this decision. I never wanted a gun in the house but after discussing it with Tania (and Adam) we decided it was the right decision for our family to have a gun in the home for self-defense.

Before we even thought of buying a gun and bringing it into our home, we spent countless hours at various gun shops asking lots of questions. We also reached out to the NRA (which, as you know, is one of the only organizations that I believe in and belong to) and took several courses in shooting and gun safety. If you're willing to make that kind of commitment then, and only then, can you start to consider whether or not you should purchase a gun.

If you decide to buy make sure you have a home safe that can be easily opened by you and your spouse. Also, when selecting a gun, make sure you ask your dealer for a gun that doesn't take exotic or hard to get ammunition.

The gun laws may DRAMATICALLY change with the election of the next President and a new Congress. Time may be of the essence on this issue so vote with that in mind.

Values

Why are we so different from grandma and grandpa? Remember how they made our clothes? They knitted sweaters and gloves, mended tears and placed patches over holes in our jeans and shirts. What do we do today? We go out and buy our kids clothes that are intentionally faded, frayed or torn. Our grandparents would think we were nuts for doing that.

How many times did we hear, "who left this light on" or "turn off the light when you're not using it." They didn't say this because they were swept up in the latest environmentally friendly fad; they said it because they hated waste. They didn't see themselves as conservationists but at their core they were the first truly 'green' generation.

It's their example that inspired me to re-discover the traditional American family eating plan in our home. This plan applies to mom, dad and all four kids. It's simple: if you don't finish your dinner, it's wrapped and put in the fridge and the next day you have to finish your leftovers.

What a great decision this has been because I'm more careful about what I put on my plate and have already had dinner table discussions with my kids about being grateful for what we've been blessed with and why it's important to avoid wasting food.

Gardening

Tania and I are planning on planting our very first garden next year (yes, I promise to send you pictures to prove it). We've already bought the fertilizer and seeds. In a way this is going to be our modern day Victory Garden our parents and grandparents planted during World War II.

A lot of people think we're planting the garden just for the food and although that's part of it, Tania and I really believe that our family will grow closer by all gardening together. Our hope is that our children will have a greater appreciation for the meals they eat when they experience the work in growing the food they will eat.

We've got so much to learn. I've already learned that there is a difference between heirloom seeds (not genetically modified) and those seeds which have been genetically modified. There are advantages and disadvantages to each type, so familiarize yourself with their respective pluses and minuses. Research what grows well in your area and what you will need to keep your plants healthy and growing.

I do want to share something I learned about seeds. Heirloom seeds are capable of producing viable seeds. So you will always have seeds to plant for the upcoming year. Several genetically modified seeds have 'terminator technology' (that's their phrase, not mine) which will prevent these seeds from reproducing viable seeds.

I'm for reasonable and safe genetically modified seeds and food. They allow people to grow crops where they normally wouldn't be able to and are more robust against disease and predators. Coming-up with all that technology is expensive so these seed producers recoup their costs by limiting the ability to reproduce. You need to have those seeds that are capable of reproducing.

Out of everything I have planned for next year, I can tell you that gardening ranks at the top. It is long term, it brings the family together on a project and it not only teaches my children science but the value of hard work. Does that make me a true sick freak?

Good Books

This is going to sound hokey but we all need to read the Constitution, the Declaration of Independence and the Federalist Papers. We need to go to the original sources, not someone's interpretation of them. Reading these documents will remind us of what our Founding Fathers really intended for us. Their words will inspire us and renew our faith in America.

We need to familiarize ourselves with the founding principles our country and Constitution are built on. We need to better understand the Founding Fathers, what they believed and how they lived their lives.

The books we read should teach us about our heritage. They should inspire us and educate our children. We need books that tell us the greatness of America's past and the promise of her future. We need to read about the mistakes the government has made so we can avoid taking those same paths. The books that I think best capture these principles are:

The 5000 Year Leap
The Real George Washington
The Real Benjamin Franklin
The Real Thomas Jefferson
Each of these books dramatically demonstrates that America was built on the collective sacrifices of individuals who willingly gave their "lives, fortunes and sacred honor." They remind us that real power rests with "We the People," not Wall Street, Washington or Hollywood.

Also, read books on history that can help you see what may be coming based on our past. The parallels are truly frightening. We are going down the same path by making the same mistakes. These books include:

The Forgotten Man (on the mistakes of the great depression)
Woodrow Wilson and the Roots of Modern Liberalism (arguably the world's first fascist leader and one reason why our children are now taught in school that the Founding Fathers and the Constitution are irrelevant)
Liberal Fascism (reveals the real danger and roots behind the nanny state mentality and what it means to America's future)
Family Time

As a country we've neglected our most important asset and resource: our children. We've become so busy trying to provide the best for 'things' and opportunities for them that we work longer hours, spend more time away from home and too often don't give them the attention they need and deserve. If the economy starts to sink, this situation will get worse.

One of the best things we can do now is to build stronger ties with our spouse and children. Our family gets together once a week for a 'family night.'

This past week Raphe had the lesson, "my favorite animal." I was in charge of the game, everyone had to imitate their favorite animal and Tania baked cupcakes for our snack. It's amazing what miracles have taken place in those short 30 minute 'family night' get-togethers. We may have forgotten this in our 'Roaring 20's' mentality but it remains true: simple things have real and lasting value.

Tania and I also set aside time for just the two of us. We have date nights where just the two of us go out. It's usually nothing fancy. Sometimes we go out for a walk or just window shopping. We've even gone on a 'date' to the grocery store to pick-up some groceries. It's not really what you actually do but the fact that we spend time together. It refreshes me. It brings us together. I love this time.

Finally, just continue to seek out those sources you trust and continue to ponder and think the unthinkable. While these things hopefully don't ever take place, they are certainly possible and unfortunately becoming more probable everyday.

The good news is that there's still time to prepare ourselves and our families. We created this problem and we can solve it but there won't be any shortcuts or an easy way out.

We must vote for those candidates of any party that reflect these values: hard work, self-determination, smaller government, fiscal responsibility and honesty. Look to the character of anyone you chose to support. Their past does matter if they haven't learned from it. Their personal life is as relevant as their public one. We must be able to trust those who will be advising and leading us on what our country must do next.

The problems we face in this country can be traced back to the lack of trust. Our whole system fails if we do not trust it and right now we do not have that trust. In the last 20 years we have lost trust in our presidents, congress and court system. It was lost when politicians argued over the definition of 'is,' the duplicity on our border security, during the OJ trial, by a renegade 9th Circuit Court of Appeals, the 2006 Republican Mark Foley sex scandal and the 2008 Democrat Tim 'more moral future' Mahoney sex scandal and so many other hypocrisies and double-crosses. Our lost of trust was inevitable.

Our political system was not designed around the people in power or really even us. It began with the core belief that we were created and given rights by God. For America to truly fulfill its promise we must restore our faith in the only thing that is solid, unchanging and real: God.

As we find ourselves not trusting our leaders, institutions or even our currency, remember the secret is simple and found as close as your pocket or purse. How appropriate that on the symbol of our present troubles we find the answer: IN GOD WE TRUST.

Only those who are mentally, emotionally, spiritually and temporally prepared will be strong enough to help themselves and others. Many will be fearful if these things come to pass but if you prepare now, fear is the one thing you will not have to worry about. You are not a victim. You are not a survivor. You are a leader. You are an American.

We are all Americans. Let us recommit that, regardless of where we stand politically, we will do the tough things to save our nation because the task at hand requires no less.

The Americans of the past did not look for leadership to come from the politician in the White House for they knew American leadership only came from your house.

Fear not, stay strong and lead the way.

glenn

**************

Please pass this on to your friends and family...

Spain

2008-11-05T20:46:00.000-08:00

Australia

2008-11-05T20:38:00.000-08:00

Poland Home

2008-11-05T20:34:00.000-08:00

Safe Houses

2008-11-05T20:27:00.000-08:00

Timeline for the End of the US Financial System and Your Savings

2008-11-05T12:59:00.000-08:00

The Total Collapse of the US Financial System

$5 Gasoline –Already Happened

Mortgage Meltdown-Already Happened

Massive Infusion of Dollars into Banking System, Insurance and Brokerage Houses- Currently Happening

By December- $50 Oil (gas less than $2)

By December $2,000 Gold

By March 09- Capitulation by the Federal Reserve, Rapid collapse of the dollar’s value.

By August The introduction of the Amero and the announcement of the North American Union, which is Mexico, Canada and the U.S.

???????

I hope I’m wrong because there’s sure to be civil unrest during the next year.

International Quality of Life Index

2008-11-05T12:25:00.000-08:00

http://www.il-ireland.com/il/qofl2008/

Safe at Home

2008-11-05T12:19:00.000-08:00

The Amero

2008-11-05T12:07:00.001-08:00

Freedom to do Business

2008-11-05T11:29:00.000-08:00

Free Economy Index

$50 Oil $5 Brains, 2 Cent Dollar

2008-11-05T10:59:00.000-08:00

Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch are predicting that the price of crude oil could fall to $50 a barrel by December if the global economy slips into recession. Opec is due to meet this week and it is expected that the group will announce a cut in output.

$50 Oil will cause the Oil States to pull out of Treasuries and by March the Fed will be forcesd to capitulate.

Your Congress Knew about the Crash in March

2008-11-05T10:54:00.000-08:00

March.. Congress Knew About the Crash - The funniest bloopers are right here

$50 Oil will Kill the Dollar

2008-11-05T10:44:00.000-08:00

Comex is short Gold, Prices Could Double in December

2008-11-05T10:30:00.000-08:00